Risk of Unplanned Emergency Department Readmission after an Acute-Care Hospital Discharge among Geriatric Inpatients: Results from the Geriatric EDEN Cohort Study

Abstract

Objectives: The study aims 1) to examine whether items of the brief geriatric assessment (BGA) or their combinations predicted the risk of unplanned emergency department readmission after an acute care hospital discharge among geriatric inpatients, and 2) to determine whether BGA could be used as a prognostic tool for unplanned emergency department readmission.

Methods: A total of 312 older patients (mean age, 84.6 ± 5.4 years; 64.1% female) hospitalized in acute care wards after an emergency department visit were recruited in this observational prospective cohort study and separated into 2 groups based on the occurrence or not of an unplanned emergency department readmission during a 12-month follow-up period after their hospital discharge. A 6-item BGA was performed at emergency department admission before the discharge to acute care wards. Information on incident unplanned emergency department readmission was prospectively collected by phone call and by consulting the hospital registry. Several combinations of items of BGA identifying three levels of risk of unplanned emergency department readmission (i.e., low risk, intermediate risk and high risk) were examined.

Results: The unplanned emergency department readmission was more frequently associated with a temporal disorientation (P=0.004). Area under receiver operating characteristic curves of unplanned emergency department readmission based on BGA items and their combinations ranged from 0.53 to 0.61. The best predictor of unplanned emergency department readmission was the temporal disorientation (hazard ratio>1.65, P<0.035), which defined the high-risk group. Inpatients classified in high-risk group of unplanned emergency department readmission were more frequently readmitted to emergency department than those in intermediate- and low-risk groups (P log Rank <0.004). Prognostic values for unplanned emergency department readmission of items and their combinations were poor with sensitivity below 67%, specificity ranging from 36.4 to 53.7, and positive likelihood ratio below 1.4.

Conclusions: The items of BGA and their combinations were significant risk factors for unplanned emergency department readmission, but their prognostic value was poor.