Stage-shift cancer screening model

Abstract

A stage-shift cancer screening model is developed in the context of a randomized controlled trial (RCT) of cancer screening. In the model, detection by screening causes the time of diagnosis of the cancer to be advanced so that either the stage at diagnosis is shifted from one stage to the next lower one or the stage of diagnosis is unchanged but the cancer is diagnosed earlier in the stage. These are called external and internal stage shifts, respectively. At each stage the extent of the external and internal shifts and any associated mortality benefits are estimated. Further, the model allows the interrelationships of these benefits within and between stages to be delineated. This then allows us to better understand the results of the RCT. Data from a completed breast cancer screening RCT are used to illustrate the application of the model and its value in improving our understanding of the trial's results.