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. 2016 Feb 3:6:20145.
doi: 10.1038/srep20145.

Possible shift in the ENSO-Indian monsoon rainfall relationship under future global warming

Sarita Azad  1 , M Rajeevan  2
Affiliations

Possible shift in the ENSO-Indian monsoon rainfall relationship under future global warming

Sarita Azad et al. Sci Rep. .

Abstract

EI Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian monsoon rainfall are known to have an inverse relationship, which we have observed in the rainfall spectrum exhibiting a spectral dip in 3-5 y period band. It is well documented that El Nino events are known to be associated with deficit rainfall. Our analysis reveals that this spectral dip (3-5 y) is likely to shift to shorter periods (2.5-3 y) in future, suggesting a possible shift in the relationship between ENSO and monsoon rainfall. Spectral analysis of future climate projections by 20 Coupled Model Intercomparison project 5 (CMIP5) models are employed in order to corroborate our findings. Change in spectral dip speculates early occurrence of drought events in future due to multiple factors of global warming.

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Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1. PSD of seven sub-divisional rainfall of SHR7 region and ISMR (inset) demonstrating spectral dip in the 3–5 y period band.
India’s map is created using shape file which is available at survey of India website www.surveyofindia.gov.in.
Figure 2
Figure 2. Inverse relation between ENSO-SHR7 rainfall in observed spectra during the time period 1871–2005.
Figure 3
Figure 3. PSD of SHR7 rainfall from 20 CMIP5 models (red) against observations (blue).
The eight models whose spectra match well with the observed are marked in circle.
Figure 4
Figure 4. PSD of projected SHR7 rainfall from 20 CMIP5 models.
The five models which show shift in the spectral dip are marked in circle.
Figure 5
Figure 5. PSD of (a) observed; (b) model IPSL-CM5A; and (c) comparison of SHR7 rainfall and ISMR projected.
Figure 6
Figure 6. Projected changes in Nino 3 SST by model GFDL-CM3.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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