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. 2016 Feb 3:7:10625.
doi: 10.1038/ncomms10625.

Rapid intensification and the bimodal distribution of tropical cyclone intensity

Chia-Ying Lee  1 , Michael K Tippett  2   3 , Adam H Sobel  2   4 , Suzana J Camargo  4
Affiliations

Rapid intensification and the bimodal distribution of tropical cyclone intensity

Chia-Ying Lee et al. Nat Commun. .

Abstract

The severity of a tropical cyclone (TC) is often summarized by its lifetime maximum intensity (LMI), and the climatological LMI distribution is a fundamental feature of the climate system. The distinctive bimodality of the LMI distribution means that major storms (LMI >96 kt) are not very rare compared with less intense storms. Rapid intensification (RI) is the dramatic strengthening of a TC in a short time, and is notoriously difficult to forecast or simulate. Here we show that the bimodality of the LMI distribution reflects two types of storms: those that undergo RI during their lifetime (RI storms) and those that do not (non-RI storms). The vast majority (79%) of major storms are RI storms. Few non-RI storms (6%) become major storms. While the importance of RI has been recognized in weather forecasting, our results demonstrate that RI also plays a crucial role in the TC climatology.

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Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1. Distributions of global tropical cyclone LMI.
PDFs are calculated using 1981–2012 global tropical cyclone LMI. The grey bars show the raw data binned in 5 kt bins. The black, red and blue lines show the smoothed PDF for all storms, storms those undergo rapid intensification during their lifetime (RI storms), and those do not (non-RI storms), respectively. Smoothing is by moving average with window width of 15 kt. Total number of storms is listed in the title, while the numbers of RI and non-RI storms are given in the legend.
Figure 2
Figure 2. Distributions of regional tropical cyclone LMI.
PDFs are calculated using 1981–2012 tropical cyclone for individual basins: (a) North Atlantic, (b) Western North Pacific, (c) Eastern North Pacific, (d) North Indian Ocean, and (e) Southern Hemisphere basins. The black, red and blue lines show the smoothed PDFs for all, the subset of storms those undergo rapid intensification during their lifetime (RI storms), and those do not (non-RI storms), respectively. The raw data is binned in 5 kt bins and smoothing is by moving average with window width of 15 kt. The number of storms in each basin is given in the title, and the numbers of RI and non-RI storms are given in the legend.
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