Very High-Risk Localized Prostate Cancer: Outcomes Following Definitive Radiation

Abstract

Purpose: Existing definitions of high-risk prostate cancer consist of men who experience significant heterogeneity in outcomes. As such, criteria that identify a subpopulation of National Comprehensive Cancer Network (NCCN) high-risk prostate cancer patients who are at very high risk (VHR) for poor survival outcomes following prostatectomy were recently developed at our institution and include the presence of any of the following disease characteristics: multiple NCCN high-risk factors, primary Gleason pattern 5 disease and/or ≥5 biopsy cores with Gleason sums of 8 to 10. Whether these criteria also apply to men undergoing definitive radiation is unclear, as is the optimal treatment regimen in these patients.

Methods and materials: All men consecutively treated with definitive radiation by a single provider from 1993 to 2006 and who fulfilled criteria for NCCN high-risk disease were identified (n=288), including 99 patients (34%) with VHR disease. Multivariate-adjusted competing risk regression models were constructed to assess associations between the VHR definition and biochemical failure (BF), distant metastasis (DM), and prostate cancer-specific mortality (PCSM). Multivariate-adjusted Cox regression analysis assessed the association of the VHR definition with overall mortality (OM). Cumulative incidences of failure endpoints were compared between VHR men and other NCCN high-risk men.

Results: Men with VHR disease compared to other NCCN high-risk men experienced a higher 10-year incidence of BF (54.0% vs 35.4%, respectively, P<.001), DM (34.9% vs 13.4%, respectively, P<.001), PCSM (18.5% vs 5.9%, respectively, P<.001), and OM (36.4% vs 27.0%, respectively, P=.04). VHR men with a detectable prostate-specific antigen (PSA) concentration at the end of radiation (EOR) remained at high risk of 10-year PCSM compared to VHR men with an undetectable EOR PSA (31.0% vs 13.7%, respectively, P=.05).

Conclusions: NCCN high-risk prostate cancer patients who meet VHR criteria experience distinctly worse outcomes following definitive radiation and long-term androgen deprivation therapy, particularly if an EOR PSA is detectable. Optimal use of local therapies for VHR patients should be explored further, as should novel agents.

Figure 1

Cumulative incidence of (a) biochemical failure, (b) distant metastasis, (c) prostate cancer-specific mortality, and (d) overall mortality. Estimates for biochemical failure, distant metastasis, and prostate cancer-specific mortality were calculated using the competing risk method, while estimates for overall mortality were compared using the Kaplan-Meier method. Red curves represent men with very-high-risk (VHR) disease. Blue curves represent other NCCN high-risk men.

Figure 2

Cumulative incidence of prostate cancer-specific mortality in patients receiving radiation with neoadjuvant-concurrent androgen deprivation therapy, stratified by a detectable end-of-radiation PSA level. Blue curve represents men with an undetectable end-of-radiation PSA level. Red curve represents men with a detectable end-of-radiation PSA level.