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. 2016 Feb 22:6:21691.
doi: 10.1038/srep21691.

On the causal structure between CO2 and global temperature

Adolf Stips  1 , Diego Macias  1 , Clare Coughlan  1 , Elisa Garcia-Gorriz  1 , X San Liang  2
Affiliations

On the causal structure between CO2 and global temperature

Adolf Stips et al. Sci Rep. .

Abstract

We use a newly developed technique that is based on the information flow concept to investigate the causal structure between the global radiative forcing and the annual global mean surface temperature anomalies (GMTA) since 1850. Our study unambiguously shows one-way causality between the total Greenhouse Gases and GMTA. Specifically, it is confirmed that the former, especially CO2, are the main causal drivers of the recent warming. A significant but smaller information flow comes from aerosol direct and indirect forcing, and on short time periods, volcanic forcings. In contrast the causality contribution from natural forcings (solar irradiance and volcanic forcing) to the long term trend is not significant. The spatial explicit analysis reveals that the anthropogenic forcing fingerprint is significantly regionally varying in both hemispheres. On paleoclimate time scales, however, the cause-effect direction is reversed: temperature changes cause subsequent CO2/CH4 changes.

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Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1. Global information flow from radiative CO2 forcing to GMTA.
Shown is the time dependence of the information flow between CO2 forcing and GMTA when calculating segments with increasing lengths beginning from 1850 to the actual displayed year. Statistically significant values are indicated by the dark squares in the lower part of the figure and the dashed horizontal line at 0.1 [nat/ut] indicates the threshold for relevant flows.
Figure 2
Figure 2. Global information flow from internal climate variability to GMTA.
Shown is the spatial distribution of the information flow between the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and the gridded global mean temperature anomalies (GMTA) (A) and the distribution of the information flow between the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the gridded global mean temperature anomalies (GMTA) (B). The maps were created by the authors using the m-map toolbox included in Matlab®.
Figure 3
Figure 3. Global information flow from anthropogenic forcing to GMTA.
Shown is the spatial distribution of the information flow between the total anthropogenic forcing and the gridded global mean temperature anomalies (GMTA) (A) and the spatial distribution of the information flow between the radiative forcing caused by CO2 and the gridded global mean temperature anomalies (GMTA) (B). The maps were created by the authors using the m-map toolbox included in Matlab®.
Figure 4
Figure 4. Global information flow from natural forcing to GMTA.
Shown is the spatial distribution of the information flow between solar forcing and the gridded global mean temperature anomalies (GMTA) (A) and the spatial distribution of the information flow between the radiative forcing caused by volcanic activity and the gridded global mean temperature anomalies (GMTA) (B). The maps were created by the authors using the m-map toolbox included in Matlab®.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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