Impact of interventions to reduce Alzheimer's disease pathology on the prevalence of dementia in the oldest-old

Ron Brookmeyer¹, Claudia H Kawas², Nada Abdallah³, Annlia Paganini-Hill⁴, Ronald C Kim⁵, María M Corrada⁶

Affiliations

¹ Department of Biostatistics, University of California, Los Angeles, CA, USA. Electronic address: rbrookmeyer@ucla.edu.
² Department of Neurology, University of California, Irvine, CA, USA; Department of Neurobiology and Behavior, University of California, Irvine, CA, USA; Institute for Memory Impairments and Neurological Disorders, University of California, Irvine, CA, USA.
³ Department of Biostatistics, University of California, Los Angeles, CA, USA.
⁴ Department of Neurology, University of California, Irvine, CA, USA.
⁵ Department of Pathology, University of California, Irvine Medical Center, Orange, CA, USA.
⁶ Department of Neurology, University of California, Irvine, CA, USA; Institute for Memory Impairments and Neurological Disorders, University of California, Irvine, CA, USA; Department of Epidemiology, University of California, Irvine, CA, USA.

PMID: 26900132
PMCID: PMC4808364
DOI: 10.1016/j.jalz.2016.01.004

Impact of interventions to reduce Alzheimer's disease pathology on the prevalence of dementia in the oldest-old

Ron Brookmeyer et al. Alzheimers Dement. 2016 Mar.

. 2016 Mar;12(3):225-32.

doi: 10.1016/j.jalz.2016.01.004. Epub 2016 Feb 17.

Authors

Ron Brookmeyer¹, Claudia H Kawas², Nada Abdallah³, Annlia Paganini-Hill⁴, Ronald C Kim⁵, María M Corrada⁶

Affiliations

¹ Department of Biostatistics, University of California, Los Angeles, CA, USA. Electronic address: rbrookmeyer@ucla.edu.
² Department of Neurology, University of California, Irvine, CA, USA; Department of Neurobiology and Behavior, University of California, Irvine, CA, USA; Institute for Memory Impairments and Neurological Disorders, University of California, Irvine, CA, USA.
³ Department of Biostatistics, University of California, Los Angeles, CA, USA.
⁴ Department of Neurology, University of California, Irvine, CA, USA.
⁵ Department of Pathology, University of California, Irvine Medical Center, Orange, CA, USA.
⁶ Department of Neurology, University of California, Irvine, CA, USA; Institute for Memory Impairments and Neurological Disorders, University of California, Irvine, CA, USA; Department of Epidemiology, University of California, Irvine, CA, USA.

PMID: 26900132
PMCID: PMC4808364
DOI: 10.1016/j.jalz.2016.01.004

Abstract

Introduction: The number of persons aged >90 years will grow significantly in coming decades. This group has the highest rates of dementia, most commonly Alzheimer's disease (AD).

Methods: Using The 90+ Study, we developed a statistical model for dementia risk based on brain pathologies. Intervention scenarios which reduce or eliminate AD pathology were considered, and the numbers of dementia cases among the U.S. oldest-old that could be prevented were estimated.

Results: The U.S. dementia prevalence among the oldest-old will increase from 1.35 million in 2015 to 4.72 million in 2050. If interventions eliminate AD pathology, dementia prevalence would be reduced by approximately 50%, averting nearly 2.4 million cases in 2050. However, large numbers of dementia cases would still remain.

Discussion: Reducing AD pathology would significantly decrease the public health burden of dementia. However, other interventions are needed to address the burden associated with other dementing pathologies prevalent in the oldest-old.

Keywords: Alzheimer's disease; Dementia; Intervention; Oldest-old; Pathology; Prediction; Prevalence; Prevention.

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Figures

**Figure 1**
U.S. prevalence of dementia among persons aged 90 and over in calendar years 2015, 2030 and 2050 with no intervention and with four intervention scenarios

See this image and copyright information in PMC

References

1. United Nations. Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division. World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, Volume II: Demographic Profiles. ST/ESA/SER.A/317. 2011 Available at http://www.un.org/en/development/desa/population/publications/trends/pop....
1. He W, Muenchrat MN. Washington, DC: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey Reports, AC-17, U.S. Government Printing Office; 2011. 90+ in the United States: 2006–2008.
1. James BD, Bennett DA, Boyle PA, Leurgans S, Schneider JA. Dementia from Alzheimer disease and mixed pathologies in the oldest old. JAMA. 2012;307:1798–1800. - PMC - PubMed
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1. Kawas CH, Kim RC, Sonnen JA, Bullain SS, Trieu T, Corrada MM. Multiple pathologies are common and related to dementia in the oldest-old: The 90+ Study. Neurology. 2015;85:535–542. - PMC - PubMed

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Impact of interventions to reduce Alzheimer's disease pathology on the prevalence of dementia in the oldest-old

Affiliations

Impact of interventions to reduce Alzheimer's disease pathology on the prevalence of dementia in the oldest-old

Authors

Affiliations

Abstract

Figures

References

Publication types

MeSH terms

Grants and funding

LinkOut - more resources

Full Text Sources

Other Literature Sources

Medical