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. 2016 Jul;10(4):236-246.
doi: 10.1111/irv.12381. Epub 2016 Feb 26.

The potential risks and impact of the start of the 2015-2016 influenza season in the WHO European Region: a rapid risk assessment

Raïssa Tjon-Kon-Fat  1 , Tamara Meerhoff  2 , Sergejs Nikisins  1 , Joao Pires  1 , Dmitriy Pereyaslov  1 , Diane Gross  1 , Caroline Brown  1
Affiliations

The potential risks and impact of the start of the 2015-2016 influenza season in the WHO European Region: a rapid risk assessment

Raïssa Tjon-Kon-Fat et al. Influenza Other Respir Viruses. 2016 Jul.

Abstract

Background: Countries in the World Health Organization (WHO) European Region are reporting more severe influenza activity in the 2015-2016 season compared to previous seasons.

Objectives: To conduct a rapid risk assessment to provide interim information on the severity of the current influenza season METHODS: Using the WHO manual for rapid risk assessment of acute public health events and surveillance data available from Flu News Europe, an assessment of the current influenza season from 28 September 2015 (week 40/2015) up to 31 January 2016 (week 04/2016) was made compared with the 4 previous seasons.

Results: The current influenza season started around week 51/2015 with higher influenza activity reported in eastern Europe compared to Western Europe. There is a strong predominance of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 compared to previous seasons, but the virus is antigenically similar to the strain included in the seasonal influenza vaccine. Compared to the 2014/2015 season, there was a rapid increase in the number of severe cases in eastern European countries with the majority of such cases occurring among adults aged <65 years.

Conclusions: The current influenza season is characterised by an early start in eastern European countries, with indications of a more severe season. Currently circulating influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 viruses are similar antigenically to those included in the seasonal influenza vaccine and the vaccine is expected to be effective. Authorities should provide information to the public and health providers about the current influenza season, recommendations for treatment of severe disease and effective public health measures to prevent influenza transmission. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Keywords: 2015-2016 influenza season; WHO European Region; influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 virus; seasonal influenza.

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Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Subregions of the WHO European Region, according to the United Nations geographic composition. *WHO European Region Member States that participate in influenza surveillance grouped into subregions according to United Nations geographic composition (http://unstats.un.org/UNSD/METHODS/M49/M49REGIN.HTM): Western Europe (Austria, Belgium, France, Germany, Luxembourg, Monaco, the Netherlands, Switzerland); Northern Europe (Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Iceland, Ireland, Latvia, Lithuania, Norway, Sweden, United Kingdom); Southern Europe (Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Greece, Italy, Malta, Montenegro, Portugal, Serbia, Slovenia, Spain, The former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia); Western Asia (Armenia, Azerbaijan, Cyprus, Georgia, Israel, Turkey); Eastern Europe (Belarus, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Republic of Moldova, Romania, Russian Federation, Slovakia, Ukraine); Central Asia (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan).
Figure 2
Figure 2
Proportion of A(H1N1)pdm09 among subtyped influenza viruses for sentinel detections. *Visualized data for weeks with >10 detections; week 53/2015 is excluded from the graph.
Figure 3
Figure 3
(A) Age groups of SARI cases for the 2014–2015 and 2015–2016 season week 20 to week 4. (B) Age groups of influenza‐confirmed hospitalized cases for the 2014–2015 and 2015–2016 season week 40 to week 4.
Figure 4
Figure 4
(A and B) Influenza activity for a selection of countries of different subregions (ILI or ARI, SARI and graph of sentinel detections). *For ILI and ARI, the rates are presented per 100 000 population. Black is the 2015–2016 season, purple 2014–2015, green 2014–2014, red 2012–2013 and blue 2011–2012. ** For SARI, the number of SARI cases is presented. Black is the 2015–2016 season, and purple is the 2014–2015 season. *** For the graphs on per cent positive, we have used the graphs available on Flu News Europe that have data until week 5.
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References

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