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Multicenter Study
. 2016 Mar 3:16:220.
doi: 10.1186/s12889-016-2856-9.

Optimal waist circumference cut-off points and ability of different metabolic syndrome criteria for predicting diabetes in Japanese men and women: Japan Epidemiology Collaboration on Occupational Health Study

Huanhuan Hu  1 , Kayo Kurotani  2 , Naoko Sasaki  3 , Taizo Murakami  4 , Chii Shimizu  5 , Makiko Shimizu  6 , Tohru Nakagawa  7 , Toru Honda  8 , Shuichiro Yamamoto  9 , Hiroko Okazaki  10 , Satsue Nagahama  11 , Akihiko Uehara  12 , Makoto Yamamoto  13 , Kentaro Tomita  14 , Teppei Imai  15 , Akiko Nishihara  16 , Takeshi Kochi  17 , Masafumi Eguchi  18 , Toshiaki Miyamoto  19 , Ai Hori  20 , Keisuke Kuwahara  21   22 , Shamima Akter  23 , Ikuko Kashino  24 , Isamu Kabe  25 , Weiping Liu  26 , Tetsuya Mizoue  27 , Naoki Kunugita  28 , Seitaro Dohi  29 ; Japan Epidemiology Collaboration on Occupational Health Study Group
Affiliations
Multicenter Study

Optimal waist circumference cut-off points and ability of different metabolic syndrome criteria for predicting diabetes in Japanese men and women: Japan Epidemiology Collaboration on Occupational Health Study

Huanhuan Hu et al. BMC Public Health. .

Abstract

Background: We sought to establish the optimal waist circumference (WC) cut-off point for predicting diabetes mellitus (DM) and to compare the predictive ability of the metabolic syndrome (MetS) criteria of the Joint Interim Statement (JIS) and the Japanese Committee of the Criteria for MetS (JCCMS) for DM in Japanese.

Methods: Participants of the Japan Epidemiology Collaboration on Occupational Health Study, who were aged 20-69 years and free of DM at baseline (n = 54,980), were followed-up for a maximum of 6 years. Time-dependent receiver operating characteristic analysis was used to determine the optimal cut-off points of WC for predicting DM. Time-dependent sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values for the prediction of DM were compared between the JIS and JCCMS MetS criteria.

Results: During 234,926 person-years of follow-up, 3180 individuals developed DM. Receiver operating characteristic analysis suggested that the most suitable cut-off point of WC for predicting incident DM was 85 cm for men and 80 cm for women. MetS was associated with 3-4 times increased hazard for developing DM in men and 7-9 times in women. Of the MetS criteria tested, the JIS criteria using our proposed WC cut-off points (85 cm for men and 80 cm for women) had the highest sensitivity (54.5 % for men and 43.5 % for women) for predicting DM. The sensitivity and specificity of the JCCMS MetS criteria were ~37.7 and 98.9 %, respectively.

Conclusion: Data from the present large cohort of workers suggest that WC cut-offs of 85 cm for men and 80 cm for women may be appropriate for predicting DM for Japanese. The JIS criteria can detect more people who later develop DM than does the JCCMS criteria.

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Figures

Fig. 1
Fig. 1
Flow chart of participant selection
Fig. 2
Fig. 2
ROC curves for the prediction of diabetes in the next 5 years using baseline WC. ROC curves showing the ability of baseline waist circumference (WC) to predict the development of diabetes in the next 5 years
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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