Evaluating the Impact of Criminalizing Drunk Driving on Road-Traffic Injuries in Guangzhou, China: A Time-Series Study

Abstract

Background: Road-traffic injury (RTI) is a major public-health concern worldwide. However, the effectiveness of laws criminalizing drunk driving on the improvement of road safety in China is not known.

Methods: We collected daily aggregate data on RTIs from the Guangzhou First-Aid Service Command Center from 2009 to 2012. We performed an interrupted time-series analysis to evaluate the change in daily RTIs before (January 1, 2009, to April 30, 2011) and after (May 1, 2011, to December 31, 2012) the criminalization of drunk driving. We evaluated the impact of the intervention on RTIs using the overdispersed generalized additive model after adjusting for temporal trends, seasonality, day of the week, and holidays. Daytime/Nighttime RTIs, alcoholism, and non-traffic injuries were analyzed as comparison groups using the same model.

Results: From January 1, 2009, to December 31, 2012, we identified a total of 54 887 RTIs. The standardized daily number of RTIs was almost stable in the pre-intervention period but decreased gradually in the post-intervention period. After the intervention, the standardized daily RTIs decreased 9.6% (95% confidence interval [CI], 6.5%-12.8%). There were similar decreases for the daily daytime and nighttime RTIs. In contrast, the standardized daily cases of alcoholism increased 38.8% (95% CI, 35.1%-42.4%), and daily non-traffic injuries increased 3.6% (95% CI, 1.4%-5.8%).

Conclusions: This time-series study provides scientific evidence suggesting that the criminalization of drunk driving from May 1, 2011, may have led to moderate reductions in RTIs in Guangzhou, China.

Figure 1.. Location of Guangzhou City in China.

Figure 2.. The time series of standardized daily RTIs in Guangzhou, 2009–2012. Daily RTIs are standardized by a unit of 1 million population and 1 million vehicles. The vertical line indicates the enforcement of the law on May 1, 2011, in China. The curve represents the smooth lines of RTIs against the date (natural spline with 4 degrees of freedom per year). The straight lines represent the slopes before and after the intervention. The X-axis represents the calendar day during the study period. The Y-axis represents the number of standardized daily RTIs. RTI, road traffic injuries.