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. 2016 Jun;106(6):1079-85.
doi: 10.2105/AJPH.2016.303089. Epub 2016 Mar 17.

Disability-Free Life Expectancy Over 30 Years: A Growing Female Disadvantage in the US Population

Vicki A Freedman  1 , Douglas A Wolf  1 , Brenda C Spillman  1
Affiliations

Disability-Free Life Expectancy Over 30 Years: A Growing Female Disadvantage in the US Population

Vicki A Freedman et al. Am J Public Health. 2016 Jun.

Abstract

Objectives: To examine changes in active life expectancy in the United States over 30 years for older men and women (aged ≥ 65 years).

Methods: We used the 1982 and 2004 National Long Term Care Survey and the 2011 National Health and Aging Trends Study to estimate age-specific mortality and disability rates, the overall chances of survival and of surviving without disability, and years of active life for men and women.

Results: For older men, longevity has increased, disability has been postponed to older ages, disability prevalence has fallen, and the percentage of remaining life spent active has increased. However, for older women, small longevity increases have been accompanied by even smaller postponements in disability, a reversal of a downward trend in moderate disability, and stagnation of active life as a percentage of life expectancy. As a consequence, older women no longer live more active years than men, despite their longer lives.

Conclusions: Neither a compression nor expansion of late-life disability is inevitable. Public health measures directed at older women to postpone disability may be needed to offset impending long-term care pressures related to population aging.

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Figures

FIGURE 1—
FIGURE 1—
Overall Probability of Surviving and Probability of Surviving Without Disability Conditional on Surviving to Age 65 Years Among (a) Men and (b) Women: United States, 1982 (Broken Line) and 2011 (Unbroken Line)
FIGURE 2—
FIGURE 2—
One-Year Mortality Rates by Disability Status and Age Among (a) Men and (b) Women: United States, 1982 (Broken Line) and 2011 (Unbroken Line)
FIGURE 3—
FIGURE 3—
Expected Number of Remaining Years Lived With Severe and Moderate Disability and Without Disability and Percentage of Remaining Years Expected to be Lived Without Disability Among (a) Men and (b) Women: United States, 1982 and 2011
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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