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. 2016 Feb 19;2(2):e1500975.
doi: 10.1126/sciadv.1500975. eCollection 2016 Feb.

The pace of plant community change is accelerating in remnant prairies

Amy O Alstad  1 , Ellen I Damschen  2 , Thomas J Givnish  3 , John A Harrington  4 , Mark K Leach  5 , David A Rogers  6 , Donald M Waller  7
Affiliations

The pace of plant community change is accelerating in remnant prairies

Amy O Alstad et al. Sci Adv. .

Abstract

Patterns of biodiversity are changing rapidly. "Legacy studies" use historical data to document changes between past and present communities, revealing long-term trends that can often be linked to particular drivers of ecological change. However, a single pair of historical samples cannot ascertain whether rates of change are consistent or whether the impact and identity of drivers have shifted. Using data from a second resurvey of 47 Wisconsin prairie remnants, we show that the pace of community change has increased with shifts in the strength of particular drivers. Annual rates of local colonization and extinction accelerated by 129 and 214%, respectively, between 1950 and 1987 and between 1987 and 2012. Two anthropogenic drivers-patch area and fire history-increased in importance between these periods. As the strength and number of anthropogenic forces increase, rates of biodiversity change are likely to accelerate in other ecosystems as well.

Keywords: Biodiversity; ecological communities; ecological diversity; ecology; environmental sciences; novelty; plant communities.

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Figures

Fig. 1
Fig. 1. Species composition of prairie remnants has shifted over time.
(A) Centroids for each survey are designated by a text box labeled with survey year. Blue ellipses are drawn at 1 SD from the centroid, and the dotted blue line describes the outer convex hull for each distribution. For full ordination, see fig. S1. The impact and identity of environmental drivers have also shifted. (B and C) The relationships between the three drivers and the changes in axis 1 (B) and axis 2 (C) scores are shown, with Spearman rank correlation (ρ) assessing the significance between changes in axis scores and environmental drivers. NMDS, nonmetric multidimensional scaling.
Fig. 2
Fig. 2. Colonizations and extinctions have increased.
Annual rates of local colonization and extinction are both significantly higher between 1987 and 2012 than between 1950 and 1987 (paired t test, P < 0.001 in both cases). Error bars represent ±1 SE.
Fig. 3
Fig. 3. The impact and identity of the drivers of annual rates of colonization and extinction have changed.
Between 1950 and 1987, colonization and extinction rates were significantly related to the soil continuum index, but not patch area (C) or fire history (F). Between 1987 and 2012, the soil continuum index (B), fire history (D), and patch area (F) were significant drivers of colonization and extinction. Trend lines in (C) to (F) represent statistically significant relationships. For statistical relationships, see table S1.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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