Eliciting and combining subjective judgments about uncertainty

Abstract

Frequently, health care decisions must be made before compelling and unequivocal evidence is available about the benefits, risks, and costs of a proposed new health technology. It is common for decision makers to seek the advice and opinions of experts to supplement the available evidence. This article reviews some of the methods used or recommended for eliciting the opinions of experts about uncertain events and for combining these opinions with those of others and with available empirical evidence.