Predictive Effects of Lung function test on Postoperative Pneumonia in Squamous Esophageal Cancer

Abstract

Pulmonary function tests had prospective implications for postoperative pneumonia, which occurred frequently after esophagectomy. Understanding factors that were associated with pulmonary infection may help in patient selection and postoperative management. We performed a retrospective review of 2 independent cohorts including 216 patients who underwent esophagectomy between November 2011 and May 2014, aiming at identifying predictors of primary pneumonia. Univariate analysis was used to identify potential covariates for the development of primary pneumonia. Adjustments for multiple comparisons were made using False Discovery Rate (FDR) (Holm-Bonferroni method). Multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to identify independent predictors and construct a regression model based on a training cohort (n = 166) and then the regression model was validated using an independent cohort (n = 50). It showed that low PEF (hazard ratio 0.97, P = 0.009) was independent risk factors for the development of primary pneumonia in multivariate analyses and had a predictive effect for primary pneumonia (AUC = 0.691 and 0.851 for training and validation data set, respectively). Therefore, PEF has clinical value in predicting postoperative pneumonia after esophagectomy and it may serve as an indicator of preoperative lung function training.

Figure 1. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis for primary pneumonia after esophagectomy.

Area under the curve (AUC) estimation for the peak expiratory flow (PEF) in (a) the training set, (b) the validation set.