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. 2016 Jul;12(7):776-85.
doi: 10.1016/j.jalz.2016.01.011. Epub 2016 Mar 24.

Predicting the progression of Alzheimer's disease dementia: A multidomain health policy model

Colin Green  1 , Shenqiu Zhang  2
Affiliations

Predicting the progression of Alzheimer's disease dementia: A multidomain health policy model

Colin Green et al. Alzheimers Dement. 2016 Jul.

Abstract

Introduction: We develop a multidomain model to predict progression of Alzheimer's disease dementia (AD).

Methods: Data from the US National Alzheimer's Coordinating Center (n = 3009) are used to examine change in symptom status and to estimate transition probabilities between health states described using cognitive function, functional ability, and behavior. A model is used to predict progression and to assess a hypothetical treatment scenario that slows mild to moderate AD progression.

Results: More than 70% of participants moved state over 12 months. The majority moved in domains other than cognitive function. Over 5 years, of those alive more than half are in severe AD health states. Assessing an intervention scenario, we see fewer years in more severe health states and a potential impact (life years saved) due to mortality improvements.

Discussion: The model developed is exploratory and has limitations but illustrates the importance of using a multidomain approach when assessing impacts of AD and interventions.

Keywords: Alzheimer's disease; Decision analytic modelling; Health policy; Prediction; Progression.

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Figures

Fig. 1
Fig. 1
Schematic for Multi Domain AD Progression Model. The figure presents the conceptual model and schematic for the multi domain AD progression model, showing AD health sates (states i, j, ...n) described using cognitive function, behavior, and functional ability, with each domain described using three levels (categories of severity). Death is a health state (absorbing state) in the model.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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