Skip to main page content
U.S. flag

An official website of the United States government

Dot gov

The .gov means it’s official.
Federal government websites often end in .gov or .mil. Before sharing sensitive information, make sure you’re on a federal government site.

Https

The site is secure.
The https:// ensures that you are connecting to the official website and that any information you provide is encrypted and transmitted securely.

Access keys NCBI Homepage MyNCBI Homepage Main Content Main Navigation
. 2016 Apr;48(2):451-7.
doi: 10.4143/crt.2016.092. Epub 2016 Mar 25.

Prediction of Cancer Incidence and Mortality in Korea, 2016

Kyu-Won Jung  1   2 , Young-Joo Won  1   3 , Chang-Mo Oh  1   2 , Hyun-Joo Kong  4 , Hyunsoon Cho  1   2   5 , Jong-Keun Lee  1   2 , Duk Hyoung Lee  2   5 , Kang Hyun Lee  1
Affiliations

Prediction of Cancer Incidence and Mortality in Korea, 2016

Kyu-Won Jung et al. Cancer Res Treat. 2016 Apr.

Abstract

Purpose: To estimate of Korea's current cancer burden, this study aimed to report on projected cancer incidence and mortality rates for the year 2016.

Materials and methods: Cancer incidence data from 1999 to 2013 were obtained from the Korea National Cancer Incidence Database, and cancer mortality data from 1993 to 2014 were acquired from Statistics Korea. Cancer incidence in 2016 was projected by fitting a linear regression model to observed age-specific cancer incidence rates against observed years, then multiplying the projected age-specific rates by the age-specific population. The Joinpoint regression model was used to determine at which year the linear trend changed significantly.

Results: A total of 254,962 new cancer cases and 75,172 cancer deaths are expected to occur in Korea in 2016. The five leading primary cancer incident sites in 2016 were estimated colorectal, stomach, lung, liver and thyroid cancer in men; thyroid, breast, colorectal, stomach, and lung cancer in women.

Conclusion: Currently cancer is one of the foremost public health concerns in Korea. Although cancer rates are anticipated to decrease the nation's cancer burden will continue to increase as the population ages.

Keywords: 2016; Forecasting; Incidence; Korea; Mortality; Neoplasms.

PubMed Disclaimer

Conflict of interest statement

Conflict of interest relevant to this article was not reported.

Figures

Fig. 1.
Fig. 1.
The 10 leading types of estimated new cancer cases and deaths by sex in 2016. (A) Estimated new cases. (B) Estimated deaths.
Fig. 2.
Fig. 2.
Projected age-specific incidences of major cancers during 2016 in Korea. (A) Male. (B) Female.
Fig. 3.
Fig. 3.
Projected age-specific mortality rates of major cancers during 2016 in Korea. (A) Male. (B) Female.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

References

    1. Statistics Korea [Internet] Daejeon: Statistics Korea; 2015. [cited 2016 Feb 15]. Available from: http://kosis.kr.
    1. Jung KW, Won YJ, Kong HJ, Oh CM, Cho H, Lee DH, et al. Cancer statistics in Korea: incidence, mortality, survival, and prevalence in 2012. Cancer Res Treat. 2015;47:127–41. - PMC - PubMed
    1. Shin HR, Won YJ, Jung KW, Kong HJ, Yim SH, Lee JK, et al. Nationwide cancer incidence in Korea, 1999~2001; first result using the national cancer incidence database. Cancer Res Treat. 2005;37:325–31. - PMC - PubMed
    1. Fritz A, Percy C, Jack A, Shanmugaratnam K, Sobin L, Parkin DM, et al. International classification of diseases for oncology. 3rd ed. Geneva: World Health Organization; 2000.
    1. World Health Organization . International statistical classification of diseases and related health problems. 10th rev. Geneva: World Health Organization; 1994.

Publication types

LinkOut - more resources