The Haze Nightmare Following the Economic Boom in China: Dilemma and Tradeoffs

Abstract

This study aims to expand on a deeper understanding of the relationship between rapid economic development and ensuing air pollution in China. The database includes the gross domestic product (GDP), the value added of a secondary industry, the per capita GDP (PGDP), greenhouse gases emissions, and PM2.5 concentrations. The results indicate that China's PGDP has continued to rise over the past decade, and the rate of PGDP slowed down from 1980 to 2004 (slope = 5672.81, R² = 0.99, p < 0.001) but was significantly lower than that from the year 2004 to 2013 (slope = 46,911.08, R² > 0.99, p < 0.001). Unfortunately, we found that total coal consumption, annual steel production, and SO₂ emission had been continually growing as the overall economy expands at temporal scale, with the coefficient of determinations greater than 0.98 (p < 0.001). Considering the spatial pattern aspect, we also found a significant relationship between GDP and greenhouse gases. Meanwhile, severe air pollution has negatively impacted the environment and human health, particularly in some highlighted regions. The variation explained by both total SO₂ emission and total smoke and dust emission were 33% (p < 0.001) and 24% (p < 0.01) for the rate of total pertussis at temporal scale, respectively. Furthermore, at the spatial scale, pulmonary tuberculosis rates and pertussis mainly occurred in area with serious air pollution (economically developed region). It can be summarized that the extensive mode of economic growth has brought a number of serious environment and human health problems. Thus, a new policy framework has been proposed to meet the goals of maintaining a healthy economy without harming natural environment, which may prove integral, especially when coupled with long-term national strategic development plans.

Keywords: PM2.5; SO2 emissions; haze; industrial soot emissions; pertussis and pulmonary tuberculosis; policy framework.

Figure 1

Annual coal consumption (1990–2014 (A)); the demand for steel (1980–2014 (B)); the total SO₂ emission (1980–2013 (C)); and the economic growth (1980–2013 (D)). All documents are extracted from the China Statistical Yearbook (1980–2014) [9].

Figure 2

The quadratic regression analysis of the total coal consumption (A); the annual steel production (B); the SO₂ emission (C) with the per capita GDP. All documents are extracted from the China Statistical Yearbook (1980–2014) [9].

Figure 3

The spatial pattern of population density (A); and the spatial pattern of GDP per capita and GDP of industry (B). All documents are extracted from the China Statistical Year Book for Regional Economy (2014) [9].

Figure 4

The spatial distributions of the annual density of the SO₂ (A); NO₂ (B); CO (C); and PM_2.5 (D) in 2013. The little panels present the relationships of GDP with SO₂ (A); NO₂ (B); CO (C); and PM_2.5 (D). The data is extracted from the China Statistical Yearbook on Environment 2014 [10].

Figure 5

The relationships of pertussis mean rate and total pertussis, with total SO₂ emission (A,B); total smoke and dust emission (C,D) during 2004–2014 at provincial level. Note that the red blocks are excluded from the regressions. Data resources: China Statistical Yearbook (2004–2015) [9] and China Statistical Yearbook of Health and Family Planning (2004–2015) [11].

Figure 6

The new mind map of the policy framework.