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. 2016 May 1;62 Suppl 2(Suppl 2):S96-S105.
doi: 10.1093/cid/civ1013.

Global, Regional, and National Estimates of Rotavirus Mortality in Children <5 Years of Age, 2000-2013

Jacqueline E Tate  1 , Anthony H Burton  2 , Cynthia Boschi-Pinto  3 , Umesh D Parashar  1 ; World Health Organization–Coordinated Global Rotavirus Surveillance Network
Collaborators, Affiliations

Global, Regional, and National Estimates of Rotavirus Mortality in Children <5 Years of Age, 2000-2013

Jacqueline E Tate et al. Clin Infect Dis. .

Abstract

Background: Rotavirus vaccine is recommended for routine use in all countries globally. To facilitate decision making on rotavirus vaccine adoption by countries, help donors prioritize investments in health interventions, and monitor vaccine impact, we estimated rotavirus mortality for children <5 years of age from 2000 to 2013.

Methods: We searched PubMed using the keyword "rotavirus" to identify studies that met each of the following criteria: data collection midpoint in year 1998 or later, study period of a 12-month increment, and detection of rotavirus infection by enzyme immunoassay in at least 100 children <5 years of age who were hospitalized with diarrhea and systematically enrolled through active surveillance. We also included data from countries that participated in the World Health Organization (WHO)-coordinated rotavirus surveillance network between 2008 and 2013 that met these criteria. To predict the proportion of diarrhea due to rotavirus, we constructed a multiple linear regression model. To determine the number of rotavirus deaths in children <5 years of age from 2000 to 2013, we multiplied annual, country-specific estimates of the proportion of diarrhea due to rotavirus from the regression model by the annual number of WHO-estimated child deaths caused by diarrhea in each country.

Results: Globally, we estimated that the number of rotavirus deaths in children <5 years of age declined from 528 000 (range, 465 000-591 000) in 2000 to 215 000 (range, 197 000-233 000) in 2013. The predicted annual rotavirus detection rate from these studies declined slightly over time from 42.5% (95% confidence interval [CI], 37.4%-47.5%) in 2000 to 37.3% (95% CI, 34.2%-40.5%) in 2013 globally. In 2013, an estimated 47 100 rotavirus deaths occurred in India, 22% of all rotavirus deaths that occurred globally. Four countries (India, Nigeria, Pakistan, and Democratic Republic of Congo) accounted for approximately half (49%) of all estimated rotavirus deaths in 2013.

Discussion: While rotavirus vaccine had been introduced in >60 countries worldwide by the end of 2013, the majority of countries using rotavirus vaccine during the review period were low-mortality countries and the impact of rotavirus vaccine on global estimates of rotavirus mortality has been limited. Continued monitoring of rotavirus mortality rates and deaths through rotavirus surveillance will aid in monitoring the impact of vaccination.

Keywords: child mortality; diarrhea; rotavirus.

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Conflict of interest statement

All authors declare no conflicts of interest.

Figures

Figure 1.
Figure 1.
Flow chart of articles and studies included in the analysis
Figure 2.
Figure 2.
Trends in A) the number of rotavirus deaths and B) the proportion of diarrhea deaths due to rotavirus by region, 2000–2013
Figure 3.
Figure 3.
Top countries with the greatest number of rotavirus deaths among children <5 years of age, 2013
Figure 4.
Figure 4.
A) Number of rotavirus deaths and B) rates of rotavirus mortality among children <5 years of age, by country, 2013
See this image and copyright information in PMC

References

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