Aflatoxin B1 contamination in maize in Europe increases due to climate change

Abstract

Climate change has been reported as a driver for emerging food and feed safety issues worldwide and its expected impact on the presence of mycotoxins in food and feed is of great concern. Aflatoxins have the highest acute and chronic toxicity of all mycotoxins; hence, the maximal concentration in agricultural food and feed products and their commodities is regulated worldwide. The possible change in patterns of aflatoxin occurrence in crops due to climate change is a matter of concern that may require anticipatory actions. The aim of this study was to predict aflatoxin contamination in maize and wheat crops, within the next 100 years, under a +2 °C and +5 °C climate change scenario, applying a modelling approach. Europe was virtually covered by a net, 50 × 50 km grids, identifying 2254 meshes with a central point each. Climate data were generated for each point, linked to predictive models and predictions were run consequently. Aflatoxin B1 is predicted to become a food safety issue in maize in Europe, especially in the +2 °C scenario, the most probable scenario of climate change expected for the next years. These results represent a supporting tool to reinforce aflatoxin management and to prevent human and animal exposure.

Figure 1. Risk maps for aflatoxin contamination in maize at harvest in 3 different climate scenarios, present, +2 °C, +5 °C.

Mean daily data used as input result from 100-year run of the predictive model AFLA-maize in 2254 geo-referenced points throughout Europe, in the 3 scenarios. The scale 0–200 refers to the aflatoxin risk index (AFI), output from the predictive model; increasing the (present (a), +2°C (b), +5°C (c)) number, the risk of contamination increases. Maps generated using Mathworks, Matlab. Computer Program, 2012 http://it.mathworks.com/.

Figure 2. Risk maps for aflatoxin contamination in maize at harvest in the +2 °C climate scenario.

Mean daily data used as input result from 100-year run of the predictive model AFLA-maize in 2254 geo-referenced points throughout Europe. The least (a) and the most (b) conducive years were represented. The scale 0–200 refers to the aflatoxin risk index (AFI), output from the predictive model; increasing the number, the risk of contamination increases. Maps generated using Mathworks, Matlab. Computer Program, 2012 http://it.mathworks.com/.

Figure 3. Risk maps for aflatoxin contamination in wheat at harvest in 3 different climate scenarios, present, +2 °C, +5 °C.

Mean daily data used as input result from 100-year run of the predictive model AFLA-maize in 2254 geo-referenced points throughout Europe, in the 3 scenarios (present (a), +2°C (b), +5°C (c)). The scale 0–200 refers to the aflatoxin risk index (AFI), output from the predictive model; increasing the number, the risk of contamination increases. Maps generated using Mathworks, Matlab. Computer Program, 2012 http://it.mathworks.com/.

Figure 4. Risk maps for aflatoxin contamination in wheat at harvest in the +2 °C climate scenario.

Mean daily data used as input result from 100-year run of the predictive model AFLA-maize in 2254 geo-referenced points throughout Europe. The least (a) and the most (b) conducive years were represented. The scale 0–200 refers to the aflatoxin risk index (AFI), output from the predictive model; increasing the number, the risk of contamination increases. Maps generated using Mathworks, Matlab. Computer Program, 2012 http://it.mathworks.com/.