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. 2016 May 17;50(10):5111-8.
doi: 10.1021/acs.est.5b06001. Epub 2016 Apr 26.

Combining Land-Use Regression and Chemical Transport Modeling in a Spatiotemporal Geostatistical Model for Ozone and PM2.5

Meng Wang  1 , Paul D Sampson  2 , Jianlin Hu  3 , Michael Kleeman  4 , Joshua P Keller  5 , Casey Olives  1 , Adam A Szpiro  5 , Sverre Vedal  1 , Joel D Kaufman  1
Affiliations

Combining Land-Use Regression and Chemical Transport Modeling in a Spatiotemporal Geostatistical Model for Ozone and PM2.5

Meng Wang et al. Environ Sci Technol. .

Abstract

Assessments of long-term air pollution exposure in population studies have commonly employed land-use regression (LUR) or chemical transport modeling (CTM) techniques. Attempts to incorporate both approaches in one modeling framework are challenging. We present a novel geostatistical modeling framework, incorporating CTM predictions into a spatiotemporal LUR model with spatial smoothing to estimate spatiotemporal variability of ozone (O3) and particulate matter with diameter less than 2.5 μm (PM2.5) from 2000 to 2008 in the Los Angeles Basin. The observations include over 9 years' data from more than 20 routine monitoring sites and specific monitoring data at over 100 locations to provide more comprehensive spatial coverage of air pollutants. Our composite modeling approach outperforms separate CTM and LUR models in terms of root-mean-square error (RMSE) assessed by 10-fold cross-validation in both temporal and spatial dimensions, with larger improvement in the accuracy of predictions for O3 (RMSE [ppb] for CTM, 6.6; LUR, 4.6; composite, 3.6) than for PM2.5 (RMSE [μg/m(3)] CTM: 13.7, LUR: 3.2, composite: 3.1). Our study highlights the opportunity for future exposure assessment to make use of readily available spatiotemporal modeling methods and auxiliary gridded data that takes chemical reaction processes into account to improve the accuracy of predictions in a single spatiotemporal modeling framework.

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Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Long-term average of (a) O3 (daily 8-hour maximum) and (b) PM2.5 (daily 24-hour average) concentrations estimated by CTM with 4×4 km resolution and distribution of monitoring sites.
Figure 2
Figure 2
Distribution of prediction errors (predicted value minus observed value) at the home and routine monitoring sites for O3 and PM2.5 using the three modeling approaches.
Figure 3
Figure 3
Difference of long-term predictions between the composite spatiotemporal model and ST-LUR model for (a) O3 and (b) PM2.5 in Los Angeles basin.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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