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Comparative Study
. 2016 Apr 19:7:11398.
doi: 10.1038/ncomms11398.

A two decade dementia incidence comparison from the Cognitive Function and Ageing Studies I and II

F E Matthews  1   2 , B C M Stephan  2 , L Robinson  2 , C Jagger  2 , L E Barnes  3 , A Arthur  4 , C Brayne  3 ; Cognitive Function and Ageing Studies (CFAS) Collaboration
Collaborators, Affiliations
Comparative Study

A two decade dementia incidence comparison from the Cognitive Function and Ageing Studies I and II

F E Matthews et al. Nat Commun. .

Abstract

Dramatic global increases in future numbers of people with dementia have been predicted. No multicentre population-based study powered to detect changes over time has reported dementia incidence. MRC Cognitive Function and Ageing Study (CFAS) undertook baseline interviews in populations aged 65+ years in England and Wales (1989-1994). Three areas (CFAS I) were selected for new sampling two decades later (2008-2011) with same geographical boundaries, sampling and approach methods (CFAS II). At 2 years CFAS I interviewed 5,156 (76% response) with 5,288 interviewed in CFAS II (74% response). Here we report a 20% drop in incidence (95% CI: 0-40%), driven by a reduction in men across all ages above 65. In the UK we estimate 209,600 new dementia cases per year. This study was uniquely designed to test for differences across geography and time. A reduction of age-specific incidence means that the numbers of people estimated to develop dementia in any year has remained relatively stable.

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Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1. Flow chart of individuals in CFAS I and II.
Figure shows flow of 7,635 individuals from CFAS I and 7,762 individuals in CFAS II through the baseline and 2 year follow-up, detailing those who are lost to follow-up and those who died between the waves.
Figure 2
Figure 2. Dementia incidence rates in CFAS I and CFAS II.
(a) Incidence rate of dementia per 1,000 person years in CFAS I and CFAS II by age at baseline interview. Natural scale. (b) Incidence rate of dementia per 1,000 person years in CFAS I and CFAS II by age at baseline interview. Logarithmic scale.
Figure 3
Figure 3. Dementia incidence rates in men and women.
(a) Incidence rate of dementia per 1,000 person years in men for CFAS I and CFAS II by age at baseline interview. (b) Incidence rate of dementia per 1,000 person years in women for CFAS I and CFAS II by age at baseline interview.
Figure 4
Figure 4. Total number of incident cases in UK in 2015 by age.
Total number of new cases of dementia occurring each year by age at baseline interview shown in shaded figure. The line shows the total population in the UK by age group.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

Comment in

References

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