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. 2016 Jul:48:7-13.
doi: 10.1016/j.ijid.2016.04.010. Epub 2016 Apr 14.

Study of surveillance data for class B notifiable disease in China from 2005 to 2014

Xingyu Zhang  1 , Fengsu Hou  2 , Xiaosong Li  3 , Lijun Zhou  4 , Yuanyuan Liu  5 , Tao Zhang  6
Affiliations

Study of surveillance data for class B notifiable disease in China from 2005 to 2014

Xingyu Zhang et al. Int J Infect Dis. 2016 Jul.

Abstract

Background: The surveillance of infection is very important for public health management and disease control. It has been 10 years since China implemented its new web-based infection surveillance system, which covers the largest population in the world.

Methods: In this study, time series data were collected for 28 infectious diseases reported from 2005 to 2014 . Seasonality and long-term trends were explored using decomposition methods. Seasonality was expressed by calculating the seasonal indices. Long-term trends in the diseases were assessed using a linear regression model on the deseasonalized series.

Results: During the 10-year period, 38 982 567 cases and 126 372 deaths were reported in the system. The proportion of deaths caused by AIDS increased from 12% in 2005 to 78% in 2014. There were six diseases for which the seasonal index range was greater than 2: dengue fever, Japanese encephalitis, leptospirosis, anthrax, cerebrospinal meningitis, and measles . Among the 28 diseases, the incidence of syphilis increased fastest, with an average increase of 0.018626/100 000 every month after adjustment for seasonality.

Conclusions: Effective surveillance is helpful in gaining a better understanding of the infection behaviour of infectious diseases; this will greatly facilitate disease control and management.

Keywords: Infectious disease; Long-term trend; Seasonality; Time series.

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Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Incidences of 25 of the 28 class B notifiable diseases (avian influenza, polio, and diphtheria are not included in the figure due to their low incidences). The incidence of dengue fever (bottom left) was 1.08 in September 2014 and 2.12 in October 2014, which is not shown in the figure.
Figure 2
Figure 2
Change in the proportion of cases of the different diseases from 2005 to 2014.
Figure 3
Figure 3
Change in the percentage of deaths caused by the different diseases from 2005 to 2014.
Figure 4
Figure 4
Seasonal index for each infectious disease.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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