A time series analysis of gonorrhea surveillance data

Abstract

Gonorrhea is the most frequently reported communicable disease in the United States. In response to rapidly rising rates in the late 1960s, the Public Health Service instituted a gonorrhea control programme. An important component of the programme is the screening of women for gonococcal infections. We use a time series intervention model to estimate the initial increase in reporting of cases in women associated with the control programme. From the middle 1970s to the middle 1980s, a regular seasonal pattern in the data is conspicuous. We use a second time series model to quantify the seasonal variation during this period and to construct forecasts.