HIV infectiousness and the AIDS epidemic

Abstract

The paper outlines a theory of the AIDS epidemic based on assumptions regarding the changes in infectiousness over the life cycle of the disease. It proposes a short initial period of infectiousness, followed by a long dormant period, which is in turn succeeded by another period of infectiousness, longer than the first period. Each of the two periods of infectiousness can generate an associated epidemic. It is suggested that the Western homosexual epidemic is based on initial stage infectiousness, while the African heterosexual epidemic is mainly the result of end stage infectiousness.