An epidemiological model of rinderpest. II. Simulations of the behaviour of rinderpest virus in populations

Abstract

Fixed parameters for different hypothetical strains of rinderpest virus (RV) and different susceptible populations are described together with details of their derivation. Simulations were then carried out in a computer model to determine the effects that varying these parameters would have on the behaviour of RV in the different populations. The results indicated that virulent strains of RV are more likely to behave in epidemic fashion whereas milder strains tend towards persistence and the establishment of endemicity. High herd immunity levels prevent virus transmission and low herd immunity levels encourage epidemic transmission. Intermediate levels of immunity assist the establishment of endemicity. The virus is able to persist in large populations for longer than in small populations. Different vaccination strategies were also investigated. In areas where vaccination is inefficient annual vaccination of all stock may be the best policy for inducing high levels of herd immunity. In endemic areas and in herds recovering from epidemics the prevalence of clinically affected animals may be very low. In these situations veterinary officers are more likely to find clinical cases by examining cattle for mouth lesions rather than by checking for diarrhoea or high mortalities.