Life expectancy with chronic kidney disease: an educational review

Abstract

Can renal prognosis and life expectancy be accurately predicted? Increasingly, the answer is yes. The natural history of different forms of renal disease is becoming clearer; the degree of reduction in glomerular filtration rate (GFR) and the magnitude of proteinuria are strong predictors of renal outcome. Actuarial data on life expectancy from the start of renal replacement therapy are available from renal registries such as the U.S. Renal Data System (USRDS), and the UK Renal Registry. Recently, similar data have become available for patients with chronic kidney disease. Data collected from a large population-based registry in Alberta, Canada and stratified for different levels of estimated GFR (eGFR) have shown that the reduction in life expectancy with kidney failure is not a uremic event associated with starting dialysis but a continuous process that is evident from an eGFR of ≤60 ml/min. Nevertheless, despite the poor prognosis of the last stages of renal failure, progress in the treatment and management of these patients and, in particular, of their cardiovascular risk factors continues to improve long-term outcome.

Keywords: Adolescent; CAKUT; Chronic kidney disease; End-stage kidney disease; Life expectancy; Progressive renal failure.

Fig. 1

Expected remaining lifetime (years) on dialysis for a 36-year-old man 1996–2013. The data in this figure are taken from on-line archives of United States Renal Data System (USRDS) 1996–2014[12] The interpretation and reporting of these data are the responsibility of the author and in no way should be seen as an official policy or interpretation of the U.S. government