Depression and Anxiety Screens as Predictors of 8-Year Incidence of Myocardial Infarction and Stroke in Primary Care Patients

Abstract

Objective: Because depression and anxiety are typically studied in isolation, our purpose was to examine the relative importance of these overlapping emotional factors in predicting incident cardiovascular disease (CVD).

Methods: We examined depression and anxiety screens, and their individual items, as predictors of incident hard CVD events, myocardial infarction, and stroke for 8 years in a diverse sample of 2041 older primary care patients initially free of CVD. At baseline, participants completed self-report depression and anxiety screens. Data regarding CVD events were obtained from an electronic medical record system and the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services analytic files.

Results: During follow-up, 683 (33%) experienced a CVD event. Cox proportional hazards models-adjusted for demographic and CVD risk factors-revealed that a positive anxiety screen, but not a positive depression screen, was associated with an increased risk of a hard CVD event in separate models (Years 0-3: anxiety hazard ratio [HR] = 1.54, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.21-1.96, p < .001; Years 3+: anxiety HR = 0.99, CI = 0.81-1.21), p = .93; depression HR = 1.10, CI = 0.88-1.36, p = .41), as well as when entered into the same model (Years 0-3: anxiety HR = 1.53, CI = 1.20-1.95, p < .001; Years 3+: anxiety HR = 0.99, CI = 0.80-1.21, p = .99; depression HR = 1.03, CI = 0.82-1.29, p = .82). Analyses examining individual items and secondary outcomes showed that the anxiety-CVD association was largely driven by the feeling anxious item and the myocardial infarction outcome.

Conclusions: Anxiety, especially feeling anxious, is a unique risk factor for CVD events in older adults, independent of conventional risk factors and depression. Anxiety deserves increased attention as a potential factor relevant to CVD risk stratification and a potential target of CVD primary prevention efforts.

Figure 1

Kaplan-Meier survival curves illustrating the time to (A) hard CVD events and (B) fatal or nonfatal MI over the 8-year follow-up period for primary care patients who endorsed the feeling anxious items (positive) versus those who did not (negative). CVD = cardiovascular disease. MI = myocardial infarction.