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Comparative Study
. 2016 May 31;113(22):6160-5.
doi: 10.1073/pnas.1522445113. Epub 2016 May 16.

Time discounting and criminal behavior

David Åkerlund  1 , Bart H H Golsteyn  2 , Hans Grönqvist  3 , Lena Lindahl  4
Affiliations
Comparative Study

Time discounting and criminal behavior

David Åkerlund et al. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. .

Abstract

One of the most basic predictions of almost any model of crime is that individual time preferences matter. However, empirical evidence on this fundamental property is essentially nonexistent. To our knowledge, this paper provides the first pieces of evidence on the link between time discounting and crime. We use a unique dataset that combines a survey-based measure of time discount rates (at age 13) with detailed longitudinal register data on criminal behavior spanning over 18 y. Our results show that individuals with short time horizons have a significantly higher risk of criminal involvement later in life. The magnitude of the relationship is substantial and corresponds to roughly one-third of the association between intelligence and crime.

Keywords: crime; intertemporal choice; time discounting.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare no conflict of interest.

Figures

Fig. S1.
Fig. S1.
Distribution of answers to time-discounting question. This figure shows the distribution of answers to the question: “If you had to choose between SEK 900 [USD 138] now versus SEK 9,000 [USD 1,380] in five years, what would you choose?”. Categories 1–5 represent respondents stating: “Certainly SEK 900 now” (1), “Probably SEK 900 now” (2), “Cannot choose” (3), “Probably SEK 9,000 in five years” (4), “Certainly SEK 9,000 in five years” (5). The amounts are presented in current prices. The sample consists of all children born in Stockholm County in the year 1953. The survey was administrated to children aged 13 y.
Fig. S2.
Fig. S2.
The relationship between time discounting and crime by age. This figure shows the average probability of committing at least one crime at a given age for the group of individuals who certainly wants the immediate reward (Not patient) and the rest of the sample (Patient) along with a 95% confidence interval.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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