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Meta-Analysis
. 2016 Apr:6:258-268.
doi: 10.1016/j.ebiom.2016.02.034. Epub 2016 Feb 23.

Effects of Air Temperature on Climate-Sensitive Mortality and Morbidity Outcomes in the Elderly; a Systematic Review and Meta-analysis of Epidemiological Evidence

Aditi Bunker  1 , Jan Wildenhain  2 , Alina Vandenbergh  3 , Nicholas Henschke  4 , Joacim Rocklöv  5 , Shakoor Hajat  6 , Rainer Sauerborn  4
Affiliations
Meta-Analysis

Effects of Air Temperature on Climate-Sensitive Mortality and Morbidity Outcomes in the Elderly; a Systematic Review and Meta-analysis of Epidemiological Evidence

Aditi Bunker et al. EBioMedicine. 2016 Apr.

Abstract

Introduction: Climate change and rapid population ageing are significant public health challenges. Understanding which health problems are affected by temperature is important for preventing heat and cold-related deaths and illnesses, particularly in the elderly. Here we present a systematic review and meta-analysis on the effects of ambient hot and cold temperature (excluding heat/cold wave only studies) on elderly (65+ years) mortality and morbidity.

Methods: Time-series or case-crossover studies comprising cause-specific cases of elderly mortality (n=3,933,398) or morbidity (n=12,157,782) were pooled to obtain a percent change (%) in risk for temperature exposure on cause-specific disease outcomes using a random-effects meta-analysis.

Results: A 1°C temperature rise increased cardiovascular (3.44%, 95% CI 3.10-3.78), respiratory (3.60%, 3.18-4.02), and cerebrovascular (1.40%, 0.06-2.75) mortality. A 1°C temperature reduction increased respiratory (2.90%, 1.84-3.97) and cardiovascular (1.66%, 1.19-2.14) mortality. The greatest risk was associated with cold-induced pneumonia (6.89%, 20-12.99) and respiratory morbidity (4.93% 1.54-8.44). A 1°C temperature rise increased cardiovascular, respiratory, diabetes mellitus, genitourinary, infectious disease and heat-related morbidity.

Discussion: Elevated risks for the elderly were prominent for temperature-induced cerebrovascular, cardiovascular, diabetes, genitourinary, infectious disease, heat-related, and respiratory outcomes. These risks will likely increase with climate change and global ageing.

Keywords: Climate change; Elderly; Meta-analysis; Morbidity; Mortality; Temperature.

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Figures

Fig. 1
Fig. 1
Prisma diagram outlining the selection procedure for mortality and morbidity articles.
Fig. 2
Fig. 2
Distribution of A) Mortality, and B) Morbidity studies across five Köppen Geiger climate zones (A–E). Study numbers on the map (ID) are defined in Table 1. Panel A comprises mortality studies (ID 1–20, 56–60), panel B comprises morbidity studies (ID 21–55, 61). ID 56–61 represent publications with risk estimates as a comparison between two temperatures. Repeated ID numbers on the map indicates that one study presents estimates for multiple cities.
Fig. 3
Fig. 3
Number of cause-specific A) mortality, and B) morbidity outcomes included in the meta-analysis.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

Comment in

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