Skip to main page content
U.S. flag

An official website of the United States government

Dot gov

The .gov means it’s official.
Federal government websites often end in .gov or .mil. Before sharing sensitive information, make sure you’re on a federal government site.

Https

The site is secure.
The https:// ensures that you are connecting to the official website and that any information you provide is encrypted and transmitted securely.

Access keys NCBI Homepage MyNCBI Homepage Main Content Main Navigation
. 2016:2016:3205843.
doi: 10.1155/2016/3205843. Epub 2016 May 16.

Tuberculosis Case Finding in Benin, 2000-2014 and Beyond: A Retrospective Cohort and Time Series Study

Serge Ade  1 , Wilfried Békou  2 , Mênonli Adjobimey  2 , Omer Adjibode  2 , Gabriel Ade  2 , Anthony D Harries  3 , Séverin Anagonou  2
Affiliations

Tuberculosis Case Finding in Benin, 2000-2014 and Beyond: A Retrospective Cohort and Time Series Study

Serge Ade et al. Tuberc Res Treat. 2016.

Abstract

Objective. To determine any changes in tuberculosis epidemiology in the last 15 years in Benin, seasonal variations, and forecasted numbers of tuberculosis cases in the next five years. Materials and Methods. Retrospective cohort and time series study of all tuberculosis cases notified between 2000 and 2014. The "R" software version 3.2.1 (Institute for Statistics and Mathematics Vienna Austria) and the Box-Jenkins 1976 modeling approach were used for time series analysis. Results. Of 246943 presumptive cases, 54303 (22%) were diagnosed with tuberculosis. Annual notified case numbers increased, with the highest reported in 2011. New pulmonary bacteriologically confirmed tuberculosis (NPBCT) represented 78% ± SD 2%. Retreatment cases decreased from 10% to 6% and new pulmonary clinically diagnosed cases increased from 2% to 8%. NPBCT notification rates decreased in males from 2012, in young people aged 15-34 years and in Borgou-Alibori region. There was a seasonal pattern in tuberculosis cases. Over 90% of NPBCT were HIV-tested with a stable HIV prevalence of 13%. The ARIMA best fit model predicted a decrease in tuberculosis cases finding in the next five years. Conclusion. Tuberculosis case notifications are predicted to decrease in the next five years if current passive case finding is used. Additional strategies are needed in the country.

PubMed Disclaimer

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Trend of presumptive and notified tuberculosis cases in Benin, 2000–2014.
Figure 2
Figure 2
Different types of tuberculosis diagnosed in Benin, 2000–2014.
Figure 3
Figure 3
Trend of baseline characteristics and HIV positive status of tuberculosis patients between 2000 and 2014, Benin. (a) Sex in NPBCT; (b) age group in NPBCT; (c) regions of diagnosis for all TB; (d) HIV prevalence in NPBCT.
Figure 4
Figure 4
Time series analysis of all tuberculosis cases diagnosed, 2000–2014, Benin. (a) Tuberculosis cases diagnosed per semester; (b) decomposition of tuberculosis cases diagnosed with an additive model; (c) Autocorrelation and Partial Autocorrelation Functions of tuberculosis time series.
Figure 5
Figure 5
Trend of TB cases in Benin between 2000 and 2014 and forecasted number of TB cases from 2015 to 2019.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

References

    1. World Health Organization. Global Tuberculosis Report 2015. Geneva, Switzerland: World Health Organization; 2015. (WHO/HTM/TB/2015.22). http://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/10665/191102/1/9789241565059_eng.pdf?....
    1. World Health Organization. The End TB Strategy. Geneva, Switzerland: World Health Organization; 2015. http://www.who.int/tb/post2015_TBstrategy.pdf.
    1. Institut National de la Statistique et de l’Analyse Economique. Benin en chiffres, http://www.insae-bj.org.
    1. Gninafon M., Trébucq A., Rieder H. L. Epidemiology of tuberculosis in Benin. International Journal of Tuberculosis and Lung Disease. 2011;15(1):61–66. - PubMed
    1. World Health Organization. Global Health Observatory. Benin: WHO Statistical Profile. 2015. http://www.who.int/gho/countries/ben.pdf?ua=1.

LinkOut - more resources