Prediction of Preadolescent Overweight and Poor Cardiometabolic Outcome in Children up to 6 Years of Age: Research Protocol

Abstract

Background: Dynamic risk estimations may enable targeting primary prevention of overweight and overweight-related adverse cardiometabolic outcome in later life, potentially serving as a valuable addition to universal primary prevention. This approach seems particularly promising in young children, as body mass index (BMI) changes at a young age are highly predictive of these outcomes, and parental lifestyle interventions at a young age are associated with improved long-term outcome.

Objective: This paper describes the design of our study, which aims to develop digitized tools that can be implemented in the Dutch Child Health Care (CHC) system or by pediatricians for children up to 6 years of age. These tools will enable (1) dynamically predicting the development of overweight, hypertension or prehypertension, low high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) values, and high total cholesterol to HDL-C ratio by early adolescence and (2) identifying children who are likely to have poor cardiometabolic outcome by the age of 5-6 years and by the age of 10 years.

Methods: Data will be obtained from the Generation R (n=7893) and Prevention and Incidence of Asthma and Mite Allergy (PIAMA; n=3963) cohorts, two Dutch prenatally recruited cohorts. We will select candidate predictors that can be assessed during the first visit and/or during subsequent visits to the CHC center or pediatrician, including sex; parental age, education level, and BMI; smoking exposure; ethnicity; birth weight; gestational age; breastfeeding versus formula feeding; and growth data through the age of 6 years. We will design dynamic prediction models that can be updated with new information obtained during subsequent CHC visits, allowing each measurement to be added to the model. Performance of the model will be assessed in terms of discrimination and calibration. Finally, the model will be validated both internally and externally using the combined cohort data and then converted into a computer-assisted tool called ProCOR (Prediction Of Child CardiOmetabolic Risk).

Results: This is an ongoing research project financed by the Dutch government. The first results are expected in 2016.

Conclusions: This study may contribute to the national implementation of digitized tools for assessing the risk of overweight and related cardiometabolic outcome in young children, enabling targeted primary prevention, ultimately yielding relevant health gains and improved resource allocation.

Keywords: (pre-)hypertension, High-Density Lipoproteins, forecasting, dynamic risk estimation; Child Health Services; overweight; pediatrics, prevention.