Skip to main page content
U.S. flag

An official website of the United States government

Dot gov

The .gov means it’s official.
Federal government websites often end in .gov or .mil. Before sharing sensitive information, make sure you’re on a federal government site.

Https

The site is secure.
The https:// ensures that you are connecting to the official website and that any information you provide is encrypted and transmitted securely.

Access keys NCBI Homepage MyNCBI Homepage Main Content Main Navigation
. 2016 Jun 27;0(7):0.
doi: 10.1590/0074-02760160074.

Spatial modeling of cutaneous leishmaniasis in the Andean region of Colombia

Mauricio Pérez-Flórez  1   2 , Clara Beatriz Ocampo  1 , Carlos Valderrama-Ardila  3 , Neal Alexander  1
Affiliations

Spatial modeling of cutaneous leishmaniasis in the Andean region of Colombia

Mauricio Pérez-Flórez et al. Mem Inst Oswaldo Cruz. .

Abstract

The objective of this research was to identify environmental risk factors for cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) in Colombia and map high-risk municipalities. The study area was the Colombian Andean region, comprising 715 rural and urban municipalities. We used 10 years of CL surveillance: 2000-2009. We used spatial-temporal analysis - conditional autoregressive Poisson random effects modelling - in a Bayesian framework to model the dependence of municipality-level incidence on land use, climate, elevation and population density. Bivariable spatial analysis identified rainforests, forests and secondary vegetation, temperature, and annual precipitation as positively associated with CL incidence. By contrast, livestock agroecosystems and temperature seasonality were negatively associated. Multivariable analysis identified land use - rainforests and agro-livestock - and climate - temperature, rainfall and temperature seasonality - as best predictors of CL. We conclude that climate and land use can be used to identify areas at high risk of CL and that this approach is potentially applicable elsewhere in Latin America.

PubMed Disclaimer

Figures

Fig.1
Fig.1. : map of the area of study (Andean region) showing population density (number of inhabitants per square kilometre).
Fig. 2
Fig. 2. : observed incidence rate of cutaneous leishmaniasis in the Andean region of Colombia by year from 2000-2009 (per 100,000 inhabitants) (Source: Ministry of Health and Social Protection).
Fig. 3
Fig. 3. : incidence rate ratio over time, relative to 2004.
Fig. 4
Fig. 4. : risk map of expected incidence (per 100,000 inhabitants) in the Andean region of Colombia, by municipality, obtained from a predictive model based on environmental factors (rainforest coverage, coverage livestock agroecosystems, temperature, rainfall and temperature seasonality).
None
Map of temperature seasonality (standard deviation *100) - Bio4 - for Andean region of Colombia.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

References

    1. Alvar J, Vélez ID, Bern C, Herrero M, Desjeux P, Cano J, et al. Leishmaniasis worldwide and global estimates of its incidence. e35671PLoS ONE. 2012;7 - PMC - PubMed
    1. Bavia ME, Carneiro DD, Gurgel HC, Madureira C, Filho, Barbosa MG. Remote sensing and geographic information systems and risk of American visceral leishmaniasis in Bahia, Brazil. Parassitologia. 2005;47(1):165–169. - PubMed
    1. Bejarano EE, Rojas W, Uribe S, Velez ID. Systematics of the Lutzomyia species of the Verrucarum Theodor group, 1965 (Diptera: Psychodiadae) Biomedica. 2003;23:87–102. - PubMed
    1. Bhunia GS, Kumar V, Kumar AJ, Das P, Kesari S. The use of remote sensing in the identification of the eco-environmental factors associated with the risk of human visceral leishmaniasis (kala-azar) on the Gangetic plain, in north-eastern India. Ann Trop Med Parasitol. 2010;104(1):35–53. - PubMed
    1. Borja-Aburto VH. Estudios ecológicos. Salud Publica Mex. 2000;42(6):533–538. - PubMed