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. 2016 Sep;5(9):2649-56.
doi: 10.1002/cam4.767. Epub 2016 Jun 29.

Projections of cancer incidence and cancer-related deaths in Germany by 2020 and 2030

Anne S Quante  1   2 , Chang Ming  1   2 , Miriam Rottmann  3 , Jutta Engel  3 , Stefan Boeck  4 , Volker Heinemann  4 , Christoph Benedikt Westphalen  5 , Konstantin Strauch  6   7
Affiliations

Projections of cancer incidence and cancer-related deaths in Germany by 2020 and 2030

Anne S Quante et al. Cancer Med. 2016 Sep.

Abstract

Past patterns of cancer disease and future changes in the demographic structure have a major influence on the projected incidences of human malignancies. In Germany, nearly a quarter of men and 20% of women die of cancer, and it is estimated that in Germany around 51% men and 43% women will develop cancer during lifetime. Here, we project the cancer incidence case number as well as the number of deaths for the most common cancers in the German population for the years 2020 and 2030. By 2030, prostate cancer will be the most common malignancy, surpassing breast cancer. Lung cancer will rank third most frequent cancer and will remain the most common cause of cancer-related mortality. Additionally, our projections show a marked increase in liver cancer cases with a continuous rise in liver cancer-related deaths. Finally, we project a constant increase in the incidence of pancreatic cancer. Based on our projections, pancreatic cancer will surpass colorectal and breast cancer to rank as the second most common cause of cancer-related deaths in Germany by 2030.

Keywords: Breast cancer; cancer deaths projection; cancer incidence projection; colon cancer; prostate cancer.

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Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Projected incident cancer cases in Germany by 2020 and 2030. (A) Projected case numbers for the five most common cancers in both sexes. (B) Projected case numbers for the 6th to 14th most common cancers in both sexes.(C) Top five projected case numbers in females.(D) Top five projected case numbers in males.
Figure 2
Figure 2
Projected cancer death numbers in Germany by 2020 and 2030. (A) Projected cancer death numbers for the five most common cancers in both sexes. (B) Projected cancer death numbers for the 6th to 14th most common cancers in both sexes. (C) Top five projected cancer death numbers in females. (D) Top five projected cancer death numbers in males.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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