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. 2016 Jun 30:9:30421.
doi: 10.3402/gha.v9.30421. eCollection 2016.

Estimating the risk of type-2 diabetes using obese-years in a contemporary population of the Framingham Study

Asnawi Abdullah  1   2 , Fauzi Ali Amin  1 , Farida Hanum  1 , Johannes Stoelwinder  3 , Stephanie Tanamas  4 , Rory Wolf  3 , Evelyn Wong  5 , Anna Peeters  5
Affiliations

Estimating the risk of type-2 diabetes using obese-years in a contemporary population of the Framingham Study

Asnawi Abdullah et al. Glob Health Action. .

Abstract

Background: We have recently demonstrated that an obese-years construct is a better predictor of the risk of diabetes than the severity of body weight alone. However, these risk estimates were derived from a population cohort study initiated in 1948 that might not apply to the current population.

Objective: To validate an obese-years construct in estimating the risk of type-2 diabetes in a more contemporary cohort study.

Design: A total of 5,132 participants of the Framingham Offspring Study, initiated in 1972, were followed up for 45 years. Body mass index (BMI) above 29 kg/m(2) was multiplied by the number of years lived with obesity at that BMI to define the number of obese-years. Time-dependent Cox regression was used to explore the association.

Results: The risk of type-2 diabetes increased significantly with increase in obese-years. Adjusted hazard ratios increased by 6% (95% CI: 5-7%) per additional 10 points of obese-years. This ratio was observed to be similar in both men and women, but was 4% higher in current smokers than in never/ex-smokers. The Akaike Information Criterion confirmed that the Cox regression model with the obese-years construct was a stronger predictor of the risk of diabetes than a model including either BMI or the duration of obesity alone.

Conclusions: In a contemporary cohort population, it was confirmed that the obese-years construct is strongly associated with an increased risk of type-2 diabetes. This suggests that both severity and the duration of obesity should be considered in future estimations of the burden of disease associated with obesity.

Keywords: BMI; obese-years; obesity; offspring Framingham; type-2 diabetes.

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Figures

Fig. 1
Fig. 1
The incidence of type-2 diabetes (events/1,000 person-years), according to cumulative obese-years, overall, and separately stratified by sex and by smoking status.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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