Carbon sequestration potential of second-growth forest regeneration in the Latin American tropics

Robin L Chazdon¹, Eben N Broadbent², Danaë M A Rozendaal³, Frans Bongers⁴, Angélica María Almeyda Zambrano², T Mitchell Aide⁵, Patricia Balvanera⁶, Justin M Becknell⁷, Vanessa Boukili⁸, Pedro H S Brancalion⁹, Dylan Craven¹⁰, Jarcilene S Almeida-Cortez¹¹, George A L Cabral¹¹, Ben de Jong¹², Julie S Denslow¹³, Daisy H Dent¹⁴, Saara J DeWalt¹⁵, Juan M Dupuy¹⁶, Sandra M Durán¹⁷, Mario M Espírito-Santo¹⁸, María C Fandino¹⁹, Ricardo G César⁹, Jefferson S Hall²⁰, José Luis Hernández-Stefanoni¹⁶, Catarina C Jakovac²¹, André B Junqueira²², Deborah Kennard²³, Susan G Letcher²⁴, Madelon Lohbeck²⁵, Miguel Martínez-Ramos⁶, Paulo Massoca²⁶, Jorge A Meave²⁷, Rita Mesquita²⁶, Francisco Mora²⁸, Rodrigo Muñoz²⁷, Robert Muscarella²⁹, Yule R F Nunes¹⁸, Susana Ochoa-Gaona¹², Edith Orihuela-Belmonte¹², Marielos Peña-Claros⁴, Eduardo A Pérez-García²⁷, Daniel Piotto³⁰, Jennifer S Powers³¹, Jorge Rodríguez-Velazquez⁶, Isabel Eunice Romero-Pérez²⁷, Jorge Ruíz³², Juan G Saldarriaga³³, Arturo Sanchez-Azofeifa¹⁷, Naomi B Schwartz³⁴, Marc K Steininger³⁵, Nathan G Swenson³⁶, Maria Uriarte³⁴, Michiel van Breugel³⁷, Hans van der Wal³⁸, Maria D M Veloso¹⁸, Hans Vester³⁹, Ima Celia G Vieira⁴⁰, Tony Vizcarra Bentos²⁶, G Bruce Williamson⁴¹, Lourens Poorter⁴

Affiliations

¹ Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Connecticut, Storrs, CT 06269-3043, USA.; International Institute for Sustainability, Estrada Dona Castorina 124, Rio de Janeiro, CEP 22460-320, Brazil.
² Spatial Ecology and Conservation Lab, Department of Geography, University of Alabama, Tuscaloosa, AL 35487, USA.
³ Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Connecticut, Storrs, CT 06269-3043, USA.; Department of Biology, University of Regina, 3737 Wascana Parkway, Regina, Saskatchewan S4S 0A2, Canada.; Forest Ecology and Forest Management Group, Wageningen University, P.O. Box 47, 6700 AA Wageningen, Netherlands.
⁴ Forest Ecology and Forest Management Group, Wageningen University, P.O. Box 47, 6700 AA Wageningen, Netherlands.
⁵ Department of Biology, University of Puerto Rico, P.O. Box 23360, San Juan, PR 00931-3360, Puerto Rico.
⁶ Instituto de Investigaciones en Ecosistemas y Sustentabilidad, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, CP 58089, Morelia, Michoacán, México.
⁷ Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Brown University, Providence, RI 02912, USA.
⁸ Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Connecticut, Storrs, CT 06269-3043, USA.
⁹ Department of Forest Sciences, "Luiz de Queiroz" College of Agriculture, University of São Paulo, Av. Pádua Dias, 11, 13418-900 Piracicaba, São Paulo, Brazil.
¹⁰ SI ForestGEO, Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute, Roosevelt Avenue, 401 Balboa, Ancon, Panama.; German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Deutscher Platz 5e, 04103 Leipzig, Germany.; Institute for Biology, Leipzig University, Johannisallee 21, 04103 Leipzig, Germany.
¹¹ Departamento de Botânica-CCB, Universidade Federal de Pernambuco, Pernambuco, CEP 50670-901, Brazil.
¹² Department of Sustainability Science, El Colegio de la Frontera Sur, Av. Rancho Polígono 2-A, Ciudad Industrial, Lerma 24500, Campeche, Mexico.
¹³ Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Tulane University, New Orleans, LA 70118, USA.
¹⁴ Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute, Roosevelt Avenue, 401 Balboa, Ancon, Panama.; Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Stirling, Stirling FK9 4LA, UK.
¹⁵ Department of Biological Sciences, Clemson University, 132 Long Hall, Clemson, SC 29634, USA.
¹⁶ Centro de Investigación Científica de Yucatán A.C. Unidad de Recursos Naturales, Calle 43 # 130, Colonia Chuburná de Hidalgo, C.P. 97200, Mérida, Yucatán, México.
¹⁷ Earth and Atmospheric Sciences Department, University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alberta T6G 2EG, Canada.
¹⁸ Departamento de Biologia Geral, Universidade Estadual de Montes Claros, Montes Claros, Minas Gerais, CEP 39401-089, Brazil.
¹⁹ Fondo Patrimonio Natural para la Biodiversidad y Areas Protegidas, Calle 72 No. 12-65 piso 6, 110231 Bogota, Colombia.
²⁰ SI ForestGEO, Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute, Roosevelt Avenue, 401 Balboa, Ancon, Panama.
²¹ Forest Ecology and Forest Management Group, Wageningen University, P.O. Box 47, 6700 AA Wageningen, Netherlands.; Biological Dynamics of Forest Fragments Project, Environmental Dynamics Research Coordination, Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas da Amazonia, Manaus, Amazonas, CEP 69067-375, Brazil.
²² Centre for Crop Systems Analysis, Wageningen University, P.O. Box 430, 6700 AK Wageningen, Netherlands.; Knowledge, Technology and Innovation Group, Wageningen University, P.O. Box 8130, 6700 EW Wageningen, Netherlands.; Coordenação de Tecnologia e Inovação, Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas da Amazônia, Av. André Araújo 2936, Aleixo, 69060-001 Manaus, Brazil.
²³ Department of Physical and Environmental Sciences, Colorado Mesa University, 1100 North Avenue, Grand Junction, CO 81501, USA.
²⁴ Department of Environmental Studies, Purchase College (SUNY), 735 Anderson Hill Road, Purchase, NY 10577, USA.
²⁵ Forest Ecology and Forest Management Group, Wageningen University, P.O. Box 47, 6700 AA Wageningen, Netherlands.; World Agroforestry Centre (ICRAF), P.O. Box 30677-00100, Nairobi, Kenya.
²⁶ Biological Dynamics of Forest Fragments Project, Environmental Dynamics Research Coordination, Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas da Amazonia, Manaus, Amazonas, CEP 69067-375, Brazil.
²⁷ Departamento de Ecología y Recursos Naturales, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Mexico City, C.P. 04510, México.
²⁸ Instituto de Investigaciones en Ecosistemas y Sustentabilidad, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, CP 58089, Morelia, Michoacán, México.; Departamento de Ecología y Recursos Naturales, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Mexico City, C.P. 04510, México.
²⁹ Department of Ecology, Evolution and Environmental Biology, Columbia University, New York, NY 10027, USA.; Section of Ecoinformatics and Biodiversity, Department of Bioscience, Aarhus University, Aarhus 8000, Denmark.
³⁰ Centro de Formação em Ciências Agroflorestais, Universidade Federal do Sul da Bahia, Itabuna-BA, 45613-204, Brazil.
³¹ Departments of Ecology, Evolution, and Behavior and Plant Biology, University of Minnesota, Saint Paul, MN 55108, USA.
³² School of Social Sciences, Geography Area, Universidad Pedagogica y Tecnologica de Colombia, 150003 Tunja, Colombia.; Department of Geography, 4841 Ellison Hall, University of California, Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA 93106, USA.
³³ Cr 5 No 14-05, P.O. Box 412, Cota, Cundinamarca, Colombia.
³⁴ Department of Ecology, Evolution and Environmental Biology, Columbia University, New York, NY 10027, USA.
³⁵ Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742, USA.
³⁶ Department of Biology, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742, USA.
³⁷ SI ForestGEO, Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute, Roosevelt Avenue, 401 Balboa, Ancon, Panama.; Yale-NUS College, 12 College Avenue West, Singapore 138610, Singapore.; Department of Biological Sciences, National University of Singapore, 14 Science Drive 4, Singapore 117543, Singapore.
³⁸ Departamento de Agricultura, Sociedad y Ambiente, El Colegio de la Frontera Sur, Unidad Villahermosa, 86280 Centro, Tabasco, México.; Institute for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Dynamics, University of Amsterdam, 1090 Amsterdam, Netherlands.
³⁹ Bonhoeffer College, Bruggertstraat 60, 7545 AX Enschede, Netherlands.
⁴⁰ Museu Paraense Emilio Goeldi, C.P. 399, CEP 66040-170, Belém, Pará, Brazil.
⁴¹ Biological Dynamics of Forest Fragments Project, Environmental Dynamics Research Coordination, Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas da Amazonia, Manaus, Amazonas, CEP 69067-375, Brazil.; Department of Biological Sciences, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, LA 70803-1705, USA.

PMID: 27386528
PMCID: PMC4928921
DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.1501639

Carbon sequestration potential of second-growth forest regeneration in the Latin American tropics

Robin L Chazdon et al. Sci Adv. 2016.

. 2016 May 13;2(5):e1501639.

doi: 10.1126/sciadv.1501639. eCollection 2016 May.

Authors

Affiliations

¹ Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Connecticut, Storrs, CT 06269-3043, USA.; International Institute for Sustainability, Estrada Dona Castorina 124, Rio de Janeiro, CEP 22460-320, Brazil.
² Spatial Ecology and Conservation Lab, Department of Geography, University of Alabama, Tuscaloosa, AL 35487, USA.
³ Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Connecticut, Storrs, CT 06269-3043, USA.; Department of Biology, University of Regina, 3737 Wascana Parkway, Regina, Saskatchewan S4S 0A2, Canada.; Forest Ecology and Forest Management Group, Wageningen University, P.O. Box 47, 6700 AA Wageningen, Netherlands.
⁴ Forest Ecology and Forest Management Group, Wageningen University, P.O. Box 47, 6700 AA Wageningen, Netherlands.
⁵ Department of Biology, University of Puerto Rico, P.O. Box 23360, San Juan, PR 00931-3360, Puerto Rico.
⁶ Instituto de Investigaciones en Ecosistemas y Sustentabilidad, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, CP 58089, Morelia, Michoacán, México.
⁷ Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Brown University, Providence, RI 02912, USA.
⁸ Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Connecticut, Storrs, CT 06269-3043, USA.
⁹ Department of Forest Sciences, "Luiz de Queiroz" College of Agriculture, University of São Paulo, Av. Pádua Dias, 11, 13418-900 Piracicaba, São Paulo, Brazil.
¹⁰ SI ForestGEO, Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute, Roosevelt Avenue, 401 Balboa, Ancon, Panama.; German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Deutscher Platz 5e, 04103 Leipzig, Germany.; Institute for Biology, Leipzig University, Johannisallee 21, 04103 Leipzig, Germany.
¹¹ Departamento de Botânica-CCB, Universidade Federal de Pernambuco, Pernambuco, CEP 50670-901, Brazil.
¹² Department of Sustainability Science, El Colegio de la Frontera Sur, Av. Rancho Polígono 2-A, Ciudad Industrial, Lerma 24500, Campeche, Mexico.
¹³ Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Tulane University, New Orleans, LA 70118, USA.
¹⁴ Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute, Roosevelt Avenue, 401 Balboa, Ancon, Panama.; Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Stirling, Stirling FK9 4LA, UK.
¹⁵ Department of Biological Sciences, Clemson University, 132 Long Hall, Clemson, SC 29634, USA.
¹⁶ Centro de Investigación Científica de Yucatán A.C. Unidad de Recursos Naturales, Calle 43 # 130, Colonia Chuburná de Hidalgo, C.P. 97200, Mérida, Yucatán, México.
¹⁷ Earth and Atmospheric Sciences Department, University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alberta T6G 2EG, Canada.
¹⁸ Departamento de Biologia Geral, Universidade Estadual de Montes Claros, Montes Claros, Minas Gerais, CEP 39401-089, Brazil.
¹⁹ Fondo Patrimonio Natural para la Biodiversidad y Areas Protegidas, Calle 72 No. 12-65 piso 6, 110231 Bogota, Colombia.
²⁰ SI ForestGEO, Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute, Roosevelt Avenue, 401 Balboa, Ancon, Panama.
²¹ Forest Ecology and Forest Management Group, Wageningen University, P.O. Box 47, 6700 AA Wageningen, Netherlands.; Biological Dynamics of Forest Fragments Project, Environmental Dynamics Research Coordination, Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas da Amazonia, Manaus, Amazonas, CEP 69067-375, Brazil.
²² Centre for Crop Systems Analysis, Wageningen University, P.O. Box 430, 6700 AK Wageningen, Netherlands.; Knowledge, Technology and Innovation Group, Wageningen University, P.O. Box 8130, 6700 EW Wageningen, Netherlands.; Coordenação de Tecnologia e Inovação, Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas da Amazônia, Av. André Araújo 2936, Aleixo, 69060-001 Manaus, Brazil.
²³ Department of Physical and Environmental Sciences, Colorado Mesa University, 1100 North Avenue, Grand Junction, CO 81501, USA.
²⁴ Department of Environmental Studies, Purchase College (SUNY), 735 Anderson Hill Road, Purchase, NY 10577, USA.
²⁵ Forest Ecology and Forest Management Group, Wageningen University, P.O. Box 47, 6700 AA Wageningen, Netherlands.; World Agroforestry Centre (ICRAF), P.O. Box 30677-00100, Nairobi, Kenya.
²⁶ Biological Dynamics of Forest Fragments Project, Environmental Dynamics Research Coordination, Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas da Amazonia, Manaus, Amazonas, CEP 69067-375, Brazil.
²⁷ Departamento de Ecología y Recursos Naturales, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Mexico City, C.P. 04510, México.
²⁸ Instituto de Investigaciones en Ecosistemas y Sustentabilidad, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, CP 58089, Morelia, Michoacán, México.; Departamento de Ecología y Recursos Naturales, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Mexico City, C.P. 04510, México.
²⁹ Department of Ecology, Evolution and Environmental Biology, Columbia University, New York, NY 10027, USA.; Section of Ecoinformatics and Biodiversity, Department of Bioscience, Aarhus University, Aarhus 8000, Denmark.
³⁰ Centro de Formação em Ciências Agroflorestais, Universidade Federal do Sul da Bahia, Itabuna-BA, 45613-204, Brazil.
³¹ Departments of Ecology, Evolution, and Behavior and Plant Biology, University of Minnesota, Saint Paul, MN 55108, USA.
³² School of Social Sciences, Geography Area, Universidad Pedagogica y Tecnologica de Colombia, 150003 Tunja, Colombia.; Department of Geography, 4841 Ellison Hall, University of California, Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA 93106, USA.
³³ Cr 5 No 14-05, P.O. Box 412, Cota, Cundinamarca, Colombia.
³⁴ Department of Ecology, Evolution and Environmental Biology, Columbia University, New York, NY 10027, USA.
³⁵ Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742, USA.
³⁶ Department of Biology, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742, USA.
³⁷ SI ForestGEO, Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute, Roosevelt Avenue, 401 Balboa, Ancon, Panama.; Yale-NUS College, 12 College Avenue West, Singapore 138610, Singapore.; Department of Biological Sciences, National University of Singapore, 14 Science Drive 4, Singapore 117543, Singapore.
³⁸ Departamento de Agricultura, Sociedad y Ambiente, El Colegio de la Frontera Sur, Unidad Villahermosa, 86280 Centro, Tabasco, México.; Institute for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Dynamics, University of Amsterdam, 1090 Amsterdam, Netherlands.
³⁹ Bonhoeffer College, Bruggertstraat 60, 7545 AX Enschede, Netherlands.
⁴⁰ Museu Paraense Emilio Goeldi, C.P. 399, CEP 66040-170, Belém, Pará, Brazil.
⁴¹ Biological Dynamics of Forest Fragments Project, Environmental Dynamics Research Coordination, Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas da Amazonia, Manaus, Amazonas, CEP 69067-375, Brazil.; Department of Biological Sciences, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, LA 70803-1705, USA.

PMID: 27386528
PMCID: PMC4928921
DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.1501639

Abstract

Regrowth of tropical secondary forests following complete or nearly complete removal of forest vegetation actively stores carbon in aboveground biomass, partially counterbalancing carbon emissions from deforestation, forest degradation, burning of fossil fuels, and other anthropogenic sources. We estimate the age and spatial extent of lowland second-growth forests in the Latin American tropics and model their potential aboveground carbon accumulation over four decades. Our model shows that, in 2008, second-growth forests (1 to 60 years old) covered 2.4 million km(2) of land (28.1% of the total study area). Over 40 years, these lands can potentially accumulate a total aboveground carbon stock of 8.48 Pg C (petagrams of carbon) in aboveground biomass via low-cost natural regeneration or assisted regeneration, corresponding to a total CO2 sequestration of 31.09 Pg CO2. This total is equivalent to carbon emissions from fossil fuel use and industrial processes in all of Latin America and the Caribbean from 1993 to 2014. Ten countries account for 95% of this carbon storage potential, led by Brazil, Colombia, Mexico, and Venezuela. We model future land-use scenarios to guide national carbon mitigation policies. Permitting natural regeneration on 40% of lowland pastures potentially stores an additional 2.0 Pg C over 40 years. Our study provides information and maps to guide national-level forest-based carbon mitigation plans on the basis of estimated rates of natural regeneration and pasture abandonment. Coupled with avoided deforestation and sustainable forest management, natural regeneration of second-growth forests provides a low-cost mechanism that yields a high carbon sequestration potential with multiple benefits for biodiversity and ecosystem services.

Keywords: biodiversity; biomass accumulation; carbon mitigation; ecology; forest regeneration; forest regrowth; secondary forests; tropical forests.

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Figures

**Fig. 1. Area and carbon distributions in SFs in the lowland Neotropics.**
(A and B) Percentages of modeled forest area (A) and AGC stock (B) in different land cover and forest age classes in 2008: cropland, pasture, forest ≤20 years (YSF), forest 20 to 60 years (MSF), forest 60 to 100 years (old SF), and forest >100 years (arbitrarily used as cutoff for OGF). (C) AGC stocks of YSFs and MSFs in 2008 (filled bars), and their net carbon sequestration from 2008 to 2048 (hatched bars). The total size of the bar indicates the total carbon stocks of those forests in 2048. Stacked bars are shown for five scenarios, where 100, 80, 60, 40, and 20% of the area are allowed to recover. The hatched yellow bar below the zero line indicates the carbon loss under these scenarios due to forest conversion to pasture or cropland in 2008, and the blue bar indicates the net sequestration potential of the different scenarios (carbon sequestration from 2008 to 2048 minus conversion-driven carbon loss in 2008). (D) Total AGC of YSFs and MSFs over the period 2008–2048 under different regeneration scenarios. (E) AGC of YSFs and MSFs in 2008, and their net carbon sequestration from 2008 to 2048 given 100% recovery, for each country separately. The total size of the bar indicates the total carbon stocks (AGC) of those forests in 2048. (F) Total AGC of YSFs and MSFs from 2008 to 2048 for the four countries with the largest carbon sequestration potential in naturally regenerating forests (see table S2 for more details).

**Fig. 2. Age and carbon sequestration maps of a lowland Neotropical forest.**
(A and B) Modeled mean forest age in 2008 (A), and the total potential sequestered carbon in OGFs, 2008–2048 for all YSFs (≤20 years) and MSFs (20 to 60 years) in 2008 (B). The gray areas are areas with no data: above 1000-m altitude, savannas, rivers, lakes, OGFs, or urban areas. The biomes covered are moist and dry tropical forests.

**Fig. 3. Potential AGC sequestration (in petagrams) for scenarios of combinations of land use over four decades (2008–2048).**
Land-use change combinations incorporate the percentage area of land allowed to regenerate following pasture abandonment (0 to 40% cessation of pasture use) and the percentage of YSF (≤20 years) and MSF (20 to 60 years) areas allowed to persist and continue regeneration (0 to 100% forest persistence). The size of the circles indicates the potential amount of carbon sequestered. Values in the cells indicate the magnitude of net carbon sequestered over 40 years (in petagrams), with all possible combinations of the two factors. These scenarios account for carbon loss due to SF clearing, which can lead to negative net carbon sequestration (red circles).

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Carbon sequestration potential of second-growth forest regeneration in the Latin American tropics

Affiliations

Carbon sequestration potential of second-growth forest regeneration in the Latin American tropics

Authors

Affiliations

Abstract

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References

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