Analysis of energy-related CO2 emissions and driving factors in five major energy consumption sectors in China

Abstract

Continual growth of energy-related CO2 emissions in China has received great attention, both domestically and internationally. In this paper, we evaluated the CO2 emissions in five major energy consumption sectors which were evaluated from 1991 to 2012. In order to analyze the driving factors of CO2 emission change in different sectors, the Kaya identity was extended by adding several variables based on specific industrial characteristics and a decomposition analysis model was established according to the LMDI method. The results demonstrated that economic factor was the leading force explaining emission increase in each sector while energy intensity and sector contribution were major contributors to emission mitigation. Meanwhile, CO2 emission intensity had no significant influence on CO2 emission in the short term, and energy consumption structure had a small but growing negative impact on the increase of CO2 emissions. In addition, the future CO2 emissions of industry from 2013 to 2020 under three scenarios were estimated, and the reduction potential of CO2 emissions in industry are 335 Mt in 2020 under lower-emission scenario while the CO2 emission difference between higher-emission scenario and lower-emission scenario is nearly 725 Mt. This paper can offer complementary perspectives on determinants of energy-related CO2 emission change in different sectors and help to formulate mitigation strategies for CO2 emissions.

Keywords: CO2 emission change; Carbon reduction measures; Extended Kaya identity; LMDI method; Sector decomposition analysis.