Predictors of chronic kidney disease in type 2 diabetes: A longitudinal study from the AMD Annals initiative

Abstract

The identification of clinical predictors for the development of chronic kidney disease is a critical issue in the management of patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus.We evaluated 27,029 patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) ≥60 mL/min/1.73 m and normoalbuminuria from the database of the Italian Association of Clinical Diabetologists network. Primary outcomes were eGFR <60 mL/min/1.73 m and normoalbuminuria; albuminuria and eGFR ≥60 mL/min/1.73 m; and eGFR <60 mL/min/1.73 m and albuminuria. Secondary outcomes were eGFR <60 mL/min/1.73 m and albuminuria.

Measurements: eGFR from serum creatinine by chronic kidney disease epidemiology collaboration equation (CKD-EPI), urinary albumin excretion, HbA1c, triglycerides, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-c) and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-c), blood pressure, and body mass index.Over a 4-year period, 33.2% of patients (n = 8973) developed chronic kidney disease, 10.3% (n = 2788) showed a decline in eGFR <60 mL/min/1.73 m, 18.4% (n = 4978) developed albuminuria, and 4.5% (n = 1207) developed both features. Relative risk ratios (RRRs) for age (1.37, P < 0.001 by 5 years), sex (0.77, P < 0.001 for being male), body mass index (1.03, P < 0.001 by 1 kg/m), triglycerides (1.02, P < 0.001 by 10 mg/dL), and LDL-c (0.97, P = 0.004 by 10 mg/dL) were independently related to the onset of eGFR reduction. Age (1.08, P < 0.001 by 5 years), sex (1.36, P < 0.001 for being male), body mass index (1.02, P < 0.001 by 1 kg/m), triglycerides (1.01, P = 0.02 by 10 mg/dL), HDL-c, and LDL-c (0.97, P = 0.008 and 0.99, P = 0.003 by 5 and 10 mg/dL, respectively) were related to the onset of albuminuria. HbA1c and the intensity of antihypertensive treatment showed a weaker association with renal outcome.Reduction in eGFR and albuminuria showed distinct sets of risk factors, suggesting that different mechanisms are involved in the development of these 2 components of diabetic kidney disease.

Figure 1

Multivariate relative risk ratios (RRRs) with their 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) to develop estimated glomerular filtration rate <60 mL/min/1.73 m² (Alb−/eGFR+) = albuminuria (Alb+/eGFR−) = or both (Alb+/eGFR+). Antidiabetic therapy was analyzed by using oral antidiabetic drugs as reference category. Analysis performed by using a multinomial logistic regression model with the missing indicator method for each incomplete variable.

Figure 2

Proportion by year of patients with estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) <60 mL/min/1.73 m² (panel A) and albuminuria (panel B) at the 4 post-baseline assessments. Number of evaluations were 27,029, 16,235, 17,591, 8019, and 27,029 at baseline, 1, 1, 3, and 4 year, respectively.