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. 2016 Jul 18;16(1):74.
doi: 10.1093/jisesa/iew046. Print 2016.

Field Verification of the Prediction Model on Desert Locust Adult Phase Status From Density and Vegetation

S Cissé  1 , S Ghaout  2 , M A Babah Ebbe  3 , S Kamara  3 , C Piou  4
Affiliations

Field Verification of the Prediction Model on Desert Locust Adult Phase Status From Density and Vegetation

S Cissé et al. J Insect Sci. .

Abstract

Previous studies investigated the effect of vegetation on density thresholds of adult Desert Locust gregarization from historical data in Mauritania. We examine here the prediction of locust phase based on adult density and vegetation conditions using the statistical model from Cisse et al. compared with actual behavior of Desert Locust adults observed in the field in Mauritania. From the 130 sites where adult locusts were found, the model predicted the phase of Desert Locust adults with a relatively small error of prediction of 6.1%. Preventive locust control should be rational, based on a risk assessment. The staff involved in implementation of the preventive control strategy needs specific indicators for when or where chemical treatment should be done. In this respect, we show here that the statistical model of Cisse et al. may be appropriate.

Keywords: Mauritania; Orthoptera; acrididea; field sampling; phase polyphenism.

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Figures

Fig. 1.
Fig. 1.
Sampling sites in Mauritania where desert locust adults were found (n = 130). The gray lines show the isohyetes of mean annual rainfall in mm (data from AGRYMET/RIM).
Fig. 2.
Fig. 2.
Comparison of observed phase status in the field with the model prediction of the phase status from density, vegetation cover, and status (expressed as a probability of being gregarious).
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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References

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