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. 2016 Nov;12(11):2813-2832.
doi: 10.1080/21645515.2016.1205769. Epub 2016 Jul 22.

Systematic review of mathematical models exploring the epidemiological impact of future TB vaccines

Rebecca C Harris  1 , Tom Sumner  1 , Gwenan M Knight  1   2 , Richard G White  1
Affiliations

Systematic review of mathematical models exploring the epidemiological impact of future TB vaccines

Rebecca C Harris et al. Hum Vaccin Immunother. 2016 Nov.

Abstract

Mathematical models are useful for assessing the potential epidemiological impact of future tuberculosis (TB) vaccines. We conducted a systematic review of mathematical models estimating the epidemiological impact of future human TB vaccines. PubMed, Embase and WHO Global Health Library were searched, 3-stage manual sifted, and citation- and reference-tracked, identifying 23 papers. An adapted quality assessment tool was developed, with a resulting median study quality score of 20/28. The literature remains divided as to whether vaccines effective pre- or post-infection would provide greatest epidemiological impact. However, all-age or adolescent/adult targeted prevention of disease vaccines achieve greater and more rapid impact than neonatal vaccines. Mass campaigns alongside routine neonatal vaccination can have profound additional impact. Economic evaluations found TB vaccines overwhelmingly cost-effective, particularly when targeted to adolescents/adults. The variability of impact by setting, age group and vaccine characteristics must be accounted for in the development and delivery of future TB vaccines.

Keywords: epidemiology; infectious disease dynamics; mathematical model; systematic review; theoretical models; tuberculosis; vaccines.

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Figure 1.
Figure 1.
Summary of systematic screening of identified articles.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

References

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