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. 2016 Jul 22:16:357.
doi: 10.1186/s12879-016-1669-x.

Results from the centers for disease control and prevention's predict the 2013-2014 Influenza Season Challenge

Matthew Biggerstaff  1 , David Alper  2 , Mark Dredze  3 , Spencer Fox  4 , Isaac Chun-Hai Fung  5 , Kyle S Hickmann  6   7 , Bryan Lewis  8 , Roni Rosenfeld  9 , Jeffrey Shaman  10 , Ming-Hsiang Tsou  11 , Paola Velardi  12 , Alessandro Vespignani  13 , Lyn Finelli  14 ; Influenza Forecasting Contest Working Group
Affiliations

Results from the centers for disease control and prevention's predict the 2013-2014 Influenza Season Challenge

Matthew Biggerstaff et al. BMC Infect Dis. .

Abstract

Background: Early insights into the timing of the start, peak, and intensity of the influenza season could be useful in planning influenza prevention and control activities. To encourage development and innovation in influenza forecasting, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) organized a challenge to predict the 2013-14 Unites States influenza season.

Methods: Challenge contestants were asked to forecast the start, peak, and intensity of the 2013-2014 influenza season at the national level and at any or all Health and Human Services (HHS) region level(s). The challenge ran from December 1, 2013-March 27, 2014; contestants were required to submit 9 biweekly forecasts at the national level to be eligible. The selection of the winner was based on expert evaluation of the methodology used to make the prediction and the accuracy of the prediction as judged against the U.S. Outpatient Influenza-like Illness Surveillance Network (ILINet).

Results: Nine teams submitted 13 forecasts for all required milestones. The first forecast was due on December 2, 2013; 3/13 forecasts received correctly predicted the start of the influenza season within one week, 1/13 predicted the peak within 1 week, 3/13 predicted the peak ILINet percentage within 1 %, and 4/13 predicted the season duration within 1 week. For the prediction due on December 19, 2013, the number of forecasts that correctly forecasted the peak week increased to 2/13, the peak percentage to 6/13, and the duration of the season to 6/13. As the season progressed, the forecasts became more stable and were closer to the season milestones.

Conclusion: Forecasting has become technically feasible, but further efforts are needed to improve forecast accuracy so that policy makers can reliably use these predictions. CDC and challenge contestants plan to build upon the methods developed during this contest to improve the accuracy of influenza forecasts.

Keywords: Forecasting; Influenza; Modeling; Prediction.

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Figures

Fig. 1
Fig. 1
Forecasted start week of the 2013–2014 influenza season, by forecast date, United States (n = 13). Forecasts presented here are from teams that successfully completed the CDC Predict the 2013–2014 Influenza Season Challenge. The start of the season was defined as the first surveillance week in ILINet where the number of visits for ILI divided by the total number of patient visits (the ILINet percentage) was above the national baseline value of 2.0 % and remained there for at least two additional weeks
Fig. 2
Fig. 2
Forecasted peak week of the 2013–2014 influenza season, by forecast date, United States (n = 13). Forecasts presented here are from teams that successfully completed the CDC Predict the 2013–2014 Influenza Season Challenge. The peak week of the season was defined as the surveillance week that the ILINet percentage was the highest during the 2013–14 influenza season
Fig. 3
Fig. 3
Forecasted peak ILINet percent of the 2013–2014 influenza season, by forecast date, United States (n = 13). Forecasts presented here are from teams that successfully completed the CDC Predict the 2013–2014 Influenza Season Challenge. The ILINet percent peak was defined as the highest numeric value that the ILINet percentage reached in the United States during the 2013–14 influenza season
Fig. 4
Fig. 4
Forecasted duration of the 2013–2014 influenza season, by forecast date, United States (n = 13). Forecasts presented here are from teams that successfully completed the CDC Predict the 2013–2014 Influenza Season Challenge. The duration was defined as the number of weeks that the ILINet percentage remained above the national baseline
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