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. 2016 Jul 14;21(28):10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2016.21.28.30283.
doi: 10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2016.21.28.30283.

The epidemiology and transmissibility of Zika virus in Girardot and San Andres island, Colombia, September 2015 to January 2016

Diana Patricia Rojas  1 , Natalie E Dean, Yang Yang, Eben Kenah, Juliana Quintero, Simon Tomasi, Erika Lorena Ramirez, Yendi Kelly, Carolina Castro, Gabriel Carrasquilla, M Elizabeth Halloran, Ira M Longini
Affiliations

The epidemiology and transmissibility of Zika virus in Girardot and San Andres island, Colombia, September 2015 to January 2016

Diana Patricia Rojas et al. Euro Surveill. .

Abstract

Transmission of Zika virus (ZIKV) was first detected in Colombia in September 2015. As of April 2016, Colombia had reported over 65,000 cases of Zika virus disease (ZVD). We analysed daily surveillance data of ZVD cases reported to the health authorities of San Andres and Girardot, Colombia, between September 2015 and January 2016. ZVD was laboratory-confirmed by reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) in the serum of acute cases within five days of symptom onset. We use daily incidence data to estimate the basic reproductive number (R0) in each population. We identified 928 and 1,936 reported ZVD cases from San Andres and Girardot, respectively. The overall attack rate for reported ZVD was 12.13 cases per 1,000 residents of San Andres and 18.43 cases per 1,000 residents of Girardot. Attack rates were significantly higher in females in both municipalities (p < 0.001). Cases occurred in all age groups with highest rates in 20 to 49 year-olds. The estimated R0 for the Zika outbreak was 1.41 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.15-1.74) in San Andres and 4.61 (95% CI: 4.11-5.16) in Girardot. Transmission of ZIKV is ongoing in the Americas. The estimated R0 from Colombia supports the observed rapid spread.

Keywords: Basic reproductive number; Colombia; Zika virus; epidemiology; outbreak.

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Conflict of interest statement

Conflicts of Interest: None declared.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1. Location of the two Zika virus outbreak settings investigated, Colombia, September 2015–January 2016
Colombia figures in yellow on the map, with a dark square for the capital city Bogota. The two settings of Zika virus disease outbreaks investigated in this study are indicated by a star. On the map, the city of Cartagena is also shown, because in Colombia, Zika virus was first detected ca 10 km from this city, before spreading to other locations in the country.
Figure 2
Figure 2. Daily Zika virus disease incidence in San Andres, Colombia, September 2015–January 2016 (n=928 cases)
Cases include all reported cases, which were San Andres residents.
Figure 3
Figure 3. Age- and sex-specific Zika virus disease attack rates for San Andres, Colombia, September 2015–January 2016 (n=928 cases)
Figure 4
Figure 4. Daily ZVD incidence for Girardot, Colombia, October 2015–January 2016 (n=1,936 cases)
Figure 5
Figure 5. Age- and sex-specific Zika virus disease attack rates for Girardot, Colombia October 2015–January 2016 (n=1,936 cases)
Figure 6
Figure 6. Estimates of effective R (red) and model-fitted daily case numbers (green) for outbreaks of Zika virus disease in Colombia, September 2015–January 2016 (n=2,864 cases
CI: confidence interval; R0: basic reproductive number. (A) Estimates of effective R (red) and model-fitted daily case numbers (green) for the outbreak of ZVD in San Andres, Colombia. The proportion of cases reported is assumed to increase linearly from 10% on and before 30 September 2015, to 100% in 4 weeks. Dashed curves (both red and green) are conservative 95% CIs. Histogram in grey shows the epidemic curve. The horizontal yellow line indicates the reference value of 1. The two vertical yellow lines indicate the time interval used for the estimation of R0. (B) As (A) for Girardot, Colombia. The proportion of cases reported increases on 19 October 2015.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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