Declining incidence of intracerebral hemorrhage over two decades in a population-based study

Abstract

Background and purpose: The incidence and case-fatality rate (CFR) of primary intracerebral hemorrhage (PICH) over two decades were assessed in a prospective population-based study.

Methods: Cases of incident first-ever PICH were recorded over a 2-year period (2011-2012) from multiple sources in the district of L'Aquila, central Italy. Included patients were followed up to 1 year after the event to ascertain CFRs. Current data were compared with those previously collected from 1994 through 1998.

Results: In all, 115 patients (52 men; 45.2%) with a first-ever PICH were included. Mean age ± SD was 77.4 ± 11.8 years. The hemorrhage was lobar in 43 (37.4%) patients, deep in 56 (48.7%), in the posterior fossa in 11 (9.6%) and intraventricular or multiple localized in five (4.3%). Crude annual incidence rate was 19.3 per 100 000 and 14.8 per 100 000 when standardized to the 2011 European population, indicating a 48% reduction comparing data of 2011-2012 to those of 1994-1998 (incidence rate ratio 0.52; 95% confidence interval 0.43-0.64; P < 0.001). In 2011-2012, the 7-day CFR was 27.8%, the 30-day CFR was 42.6% and the 1-year CFR was 52.2%; the 1-year standardized mortality ratio was 0.81 (95% confidence interval 0.63-1.04) compared with 1994-1998.

Conclusions: The annual incidence rate of PICH was lower than that found two decades before and close to the rates recently found in other western countries. Data also indicated a non-significant trend towards a decrease in mortality, which nonetheless remained high, pointing to the need for more appropriate treatments in order to reduce PICH severity and mortality.

Keywords: cerebrovascular disease; epidemiology; intracerebral hemorrhage; risk factors; stroke.