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. 2016 Jul 27:6:30360.
doi: 10.1038/srep30360.

Dynamic spatiotemporal trends of imported dengue fever in Australia

Xiaodong Huang  1 , Laith Yakob  2 , Gregor Devine  3 , Francesca D Frentiu  4 , Shiu-Yun Fu  5 , Wenbiao Hu  1
Affiliations

Dynamic spatiotemporal trends of imported dengue fever in Australia

Xiaodong Huang et al. Sci Rep. .

Abstract

Dengue fever (DF) epidemics in Australia are caused by infected international travellers and confined to Northern Queensland where competent vectors exist. Recent analyses suggest that global trade and climate change could lead to the re-establishment of Ae. aegypti across the country and promote the spread of dengue nationally. This study aimed to describe the dynamic spatiotemporal trends of imported DF cases and their origins, identify the current and potential future high-risk regions and locate areas that might be at particular risk of dengue transmission should competent mosquito vectors expand their range. Our results showed that the geographical distribution of imported DF cases has significantly expanded in mainland Australia over the past decade. In recent years, the geographical distribution of source countries of DF has expanded from the Pacific region and Asia to include Africa and the Americas. Australia is now exposed to dengue importations from all of the regions involved in the current global pandemic. The public health implications of a range expansion of dengue mosquito vectors are severe. Enhanced mosquito surveillance in those areas that have high imported cases is called for to reduce emerging threats from this globally expanding pathogen.

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Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1. The spatial distribution of imported DF cases by country of acquisition during 2004–2013 in Australia.
Figure 2
Figure 2. Number of source countries and imported DF incidence between 2004 and 2013 (Annual imported DF incidence per 100,000 ARO).
Blue line and dashed line showed the trends of the number of annual source countries of DF and annual imported DF incidence between 2004 and 2013, respectively. The bars showed the number of annual imported DF cases from main countries during 2004 to 2013.
Figure 3
Figure 3. Boxplots of monthly imported DF cases across four seasons during the three study periods: 2004–2006, 2007–2009 and 2010–2013.
Figure 4
Figure 4
(a) The pattern of the seasonal effect of imported DF over the study period in Australia. (b) Scatter plot with linear regression line for annual number of new countries of acquisition against time (year). (c) Scatter plot with linear regression line for the monthly number of the postal locations that received imported DF cases against time (month).
Figure 5
Figure 5. Heat maps of standardized monthly imported cases from Pacific regions, Asia, Africa, Europe and the Americas.
The monthly imported DF cases were standardized by the national totals of imported DF cases each year.
Figure 6
Figure 6. Spatiotemporal distribution of average annual imported DF incidence per 100,000 local population during the three periods: 2004–2006, 2007–2009 and 2010–2013.
Figure 7
Figure 7. Spatial clusters of low and high relative risks of imported DF across Australia after adjustment for the local SEIFA during 2004–2013.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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