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. 2016 Jul 29;6(7):e454.
doi: 10.1038/bcj.2016.65.

Evolving changes in disease biomarkers and risk of early progression in smoldering multiple myeloma

P Ravi  1 , S Kumar  2 , J T Larsen  2 , W Gonsalves  2 , F Buadi  2 , M Q Lacy  2 , R Go  2 , A Dispenzieri  2 , P Kapoor  2 , J A Lust  2 , D Dingli  2 , Y Lin  2 , S J Russell  2 , N Leung  2 , M A Gertz  2 , R A Kyle  2 , P L Bergsagel  3 , S V Rajkumar  2
Affiliations

Evolving changes in disease biomarkers and risk of early progression in smoldering multiple myeloma

P Ravi et al. Blood Cancer J. .

Abstract

We studied 190 patients with smoldering multiple myeloma (SMM) at our institution between 1973 and 2014. Evolving change in monoclonal protein level (eMP) was defined as ⩾10% increase in serum monoclonal protein (M) and/or immunoglobulin (Ig) (M/Ig) within the first 6 months of diagnosis (only if M-protein ⩾3 g/dl) and/or ⩾25% increase in M/Ig within the first 12 months, with a minimum required increase of 0.5 g/dl in M-protein and/or 500 mg/dl in Ig. Evolving change in hemoglobin (eHb) was defined as ⩾0.5 g/dl decrease within 12 months of diagnosis. A total of 134 patients (70.5%) progressed to MM over a median follow-up of 10.4 years. On multivariable analysis adjusting for factors known to predict for progression to MM, bone marrow plasma cells ⩾20% (odds ratio (OR)=3.37 (1.30-8.77), P=0.013), eMP (OR=8.20 (3.19-21.05), P<0.001) and eHb (OR=5.86 (2.12-16.21), P=0.001) were independent predictors of progression within 2 years of SMM diagnosis. A risk model comprising these variables was constructed, with median time to progression of 12.3, 5.1, 2.0 and 1.0 years among patients with 0-3 risk factors respectively. The 2-year progression risk was 81.5% in individuals who demonstrated both eMP and eHb, and 90.5% in those with all three risk factors.

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Conflict of interest statement

SK has obtained research support for clinical trials from Celgene, Millennium, Novartis, Janssen and Sanofi. AD has received research support for clinical trials from Pfizer, Janssen, Millennium, Alnylam and Celgene. MAG has received research support from ISIS and Prothena, and honoraria from Celgene, Millennium Pharmaceuticals and Novartis. PLB has obtained research support for clinical trials from Millennium, Novartis, Constellation Pharmaceuticals and MundiPharma, and honoraria from Amgen and Incyte. The other authors declare no conflict of interest.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Risk of progression in SMM patients, stratified by the number of risk factors (eMP, eHb and BMPC ⩾20%) at diagnosis. P<0.001.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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