Mortality due to Vegetation Fire-Originated PM2.5 Exposure in Europe-Assessment for the Years 2005 and 2008

Abstract

Background: Vegetation fires can release substantial quantities of fine particles (PM2.5), which are harmful to health. The fire smoke may be transported over long distances and can cause adverse health effects over wide areas.

Objective: We aimed to assess annual mortality attributable to short-term exposures to vegetation fire-originated PM2.5 in different regions of Europe.

Methods: PM2.5 emissions from vegetation fires in Europe in 2005 and 2008 were evaluated based on Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite data on fire radiative power. Atmospheric transport of the emissions was modeled using the System for Integrated modeLling of Atmospheric coMposition (SILAM) chemical transport model. Mortality impacts were estimated for 27 European countries based on a) modeled daily PM2.5 concentrations and b) population data, both presented in a 50 × 50 km2 spatial grid; c) an exposure-response function for short-term PM2.5 exposure and daily nonaccidental mortality; and d) country-level data for background mortality risk.

Results: In the 27 countries overall, an estimated 1,483 and 1,080 premature deaths were attributable to the vegetation fire-originated PM2.5 in 2005 and 2008, respectively. Estimated impacts were highest in southern and eastern Europe. However, all countries were affected by fire-originated PM2.5, and even the lower concentrations in western and northern Europe contributed substantially (~ 30%) to the overall estimate of attributable mortality.

Conclusions: Our assessment suggests that air pollution caused by PM2.5 released from vegetation fires is a notable risk factor for public health in Europe. Moreover, the risk can be expected to increase in the future as climate change proceeds. This factor should be taken into consideration when evaluating the overall health and socioeconomic impacts of these fires. Citation: Kollanus V, Prank M, Gens A, Soares J, Vira J, Kukkonen J, Sofiev M, Salonen RO, Lanki T. 2017. Mortality due to vegetation fire-originated PM2.5 exposure in Europe-assessment for the years 2005 and 2008. Environ Health Perspect 125:30-37; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/EHP194.

Figure 1

Modeled emissions and atmospheric transport of vegetation fire–originated fine particles (PM_2.5) for 2005 and 2008. (A,B) annual emissions (kilograms/hectare); (C,D) annual average concentrations (micrograms/cubic meter); and (E,F) the number of days when the daily average concentration of fire-originated PM_2.5 exceeded the WHO health-based guideline value of 25 μg/m³. Left panels represent year 2005, right panels represent year 2008. Emissions were modeled using the Integrated Monitoring System for Wildland Fires (IS4FIRES; FMI 2016). Atmospheric transport was modeled using the System for Integrated modeLling of Atmospheric coMposition (SILAM; http://silam.fmi.fi) chemical transport model.

Figure 2

Monthly distribution of premature deaths attributable to vegetation fire–originated fine particles (PM_2.5) in different regions of Europe. Numbers represent months beginning from January. Attributable mortality was estimated based on a relative risk of 1.0098 per 10 μg PM_2.5/m³ (Zanobetti and Schwartz 2009), INTARESE data on population distribution in Europe (IEHIAS 2011), and background mortality data from the WHO Mortality Database (WHO 2013c). For material drawn from the World Health Organization (WHO) Mortality Database, analyses, interpretations, or conclusions are those of the authors and not of WHO, which is responsible only for the provision of the original information.