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. 2016 Aug 11:7:12408.
doi: 10.1038/ncomms12408.

Projected increase in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis from 2015 to 2040

Karissa C Arthur  1   2 , Andrea Calvo  3   4 , T Ryan Price  5 , Joshua T Geiger  6 , Adriano Chiò  3   4 , Bryan J Traynor  1   7
Affiliations

Projected increase in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis from 2015 to 2040

Karissa C Arthur et al. Nat Commun. .

Abstract

Although amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) is relatively rare, the socioeconomic significance of the disease is extensive. It is therefore vital to project the epidemiologic trend of ALS. To date, there have been few published studies attempting to estimate the number and distribution of ALS cases in the upcoming years. Here we show that the number of ALS cases across the globe will increase from 222,801 in 2015 to 376,674 in 2040, representing an increase of 69%. This increase is predominantly due to ageing of the population, particularly among developing nations. This projection is likely an underestimate due to improving healthcare and economic conditions. The results should be used to inform healthcare policy to more efficiently allocate healthcare resources.

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Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1. Projected increase in the number of individuals with ALS from 2015 to 2040.
The countries studied are shown in light blue. The bars represent the growth in number of cases from 2015 (royal blue) to 2040 (navy). The per cent increase in cases during this time is shown under the country's name. The map was created in R using the packages maps, ggplot2 and ggsubplot (available at https://cran.r-project.org/).
Figure 2
Figure 2. Projected increase in the number of individuals with ALS in developed and developing countries from 2015 to 2040.
The bar graph on the left shows the increase in cases in developed (green) and developing (blue) countries from 2015 to 2040. The graph on the right shows the projected number of cases in each country in 2040. The graph was created in R using the packages ggplot2 and ggsubplot (available at https://cran.r-project.org/).
Figure 3
Figure 3. Population growth of the studied countries from 2015 to 2040.
The population pyramids show the growth and ageing trends of the populations in the studied countries. Females are located on the right (navy blue) and males on the left (royal blue). The line graph shows a positive correlation between the per cent increase in ALS cases and the per cent increase in median population age from 2015 to 2040 (ref. 37). The graph was created in R using the package ggplot2 (available at https://cran.r-project.org/).
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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