Early and extraordinary peaks in physical performance come with a longevity cost

Abstract

Life history theory postulates a trade-off between development and maintenance. This trade-off is observed when comparing life histories of different animal species. In humans, however, it is debated if variation in longevity is explained by differences in developmental traits. Observational studies found a trade-off between early and high fecundity and longevity in women. Development encompasses more than fecundity and also concerns growth and physical performance. Here, we show a life history trade-off between early and above average physical performance and longevity in male Olympic athletes. Athletes who peaked at an earlier age showed 17-percent increased mortality rates (95% CI 8-26% per SD, p≤0.001) and athletes who ranked higher showed 11-percent increased mortality rates (95% CI 1-22% per SD, p=0.025). Male athletes who had both an early and extraordinary peak performance suffered a 4.7-year longevity cost. (95% CI 2.1-7.5 years, p=0.001). This is the first time a life history trade-off between physical performance and longevity has been found in humans. This finding deepens our understanding of early developmental influences on the variation of longevity in humans.

Keywords: athletes; development; life history theory; longevity; personal record; trade-off.

Figure 1. Hazard ratio (HR) for mortality of all Olympic athletes under study and several additional analyses

(A) Hazard ratio per standard deviation younger age at personal record and (B) per standard deviation higher of rank of personal record. Hazard ratios were derived from a multivariate left truncated Cox' regression model, adjusted for nationality, sex, year of birth and respectively rank of personal record or age at personal record. Main analysis is with all 1055 Olympic athletes. ‘Age at death >50’ indicates that all athletes who died before age 50 were excluded. For the ‘Age of personal record of the highest ranking discipline’ analysis, we used an athlete's relative best discipline to calculate age and rank of peak performance. In the analyses ‘Standardized per cardiovascular category and IAAF category’, we grouped and standardized age and rank of personal record per cardiovascular intensity or per IAAF category (see methods). In the ‘Year of personal record <1935’ analysis, all personal records set after the year 1935 were excluded.

Figure 2. Age at death of male athletes dependent on the age and rank of their personal record

(A) Predicted scenarios by life history theory with a later age at personal record and a higher performance score of personal record. (B) Estimated mean age at death per quartile of age at personal record and (C) estimated mean age at death per quartile of performance score of personal record. Error bars denote one standard error. (D) Estimated mean age at death and between brackets the corresponding 95% confidence interval shown for four different groups. All estimates are derived from a linear mixed model with only males who died after age 50, adjusted for sex, year of birth, nationality and respectively rank of personal record or age at personal record.