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. 2016 Dec;144(16):3400-3411.
doi: 10.1017/S0950268816001850. Epub 2016 Aug 22.

Pandemic Risk Assessment Model (PRAM): a mathematical modeling approach to pandemic influenza planning

D C Dover  1 , E M Kirwin  1 , N Hernandez-Ceron  2 , K A Nelson  3
Affiliations

Pandemic Risk Assessment Model (PRAM): a mathematical modeling approach to pandemic influenza planning

D C Dover et al. Epidemiol Infect. 2016 Dec.

Abstract

The Pandemic Risk Assessment Model (PRAM) is a mathematical model developed to analyse two pandemic influenza control measures available to public health: antiviral treatment and immunization. PRAM is parameterized using surveillance data from Alberta, Canada during pandemic H1N1. Age structure and risk level are incorporated in the compartmental, deterministic model through a contact matrix. The model characterizes pandemic influenza scenarios by transmissibility and severity properties. Simulating a worst-case scenario similar to the 1918 pandemic with immediate stockpile release, antiviral demand is 20·3% of the population. With concurrent, effective and timely immunization strategies, antiviral demand would be significantly less. PRAM will be useful in informing policy decisions such as the size of the Alberta antiviral stockpile and can contribute to other pandemic influenza planning activities and scenario analyses.

Keywords: Influenza; mathematical modelling; pandemic; public health.

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Figures

Fig. 1.
Fig. 1.
Alberta Pandemic Risk Assessment Model structure.
Fig. 2.
Fig. 2.
Impact of severity and transmissibility on hospitalizations.
Fig. 3.
Fig. 3.
Impact of severity and transmissibility on antiviral use.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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