Prognostic factors for mortality after hip fracture: Operation within 48 hours is mandatory

Abstract

The aim of this study was to assess whether surgery delay and other variables are associated with an increased mortality rate after surgical treatment of hip fractures in the elderly. Patients treated for a proximal femoral fracture at our Orthopaedic Department between 2005 and 2012 were included in this study. A logistic regression was performed to evaluate the relationship between mortality rate at different follow-up times (30 days, six months and one year) and different patient or treatment variables. A total of 1448 consecutive patients with 1558 proximal femoral fractures (55 bilateral) were enrolled in this study (mean age 80.3 years, 75.8% female). The postoperative mortality rate was 4% at 30 days, 14.1% at six months, and 18.8% at one year after surgery. Logistic regression revealed an increased mortality at all the endpoints in patients affected by more than two co-morbidities (respectively OR_30-day=2.003, OR_6-month=1.8654 and OR_1-year=1.5965). Male sex was associated with an increased six-month (OR=1.7158) and one-year (OR=1.9362) mortality. Patients aged under 74 years had a decreased mortality at all endpoints (OR_30-day=0.0703, OR_6-month=0.2191 and OR1-year=0.2486). In this study, the surgery delay influenced mortality at one-year follow-up: operating within 48hours was associated with a decreased mortality rate (OR=0.7341; p=0.0392). Additionally, the patients who were operated on within 72hours were specifically analysed to understand if the option of 'operating within day 3' was acceptable. In the logistic regression, operating between 48 and 72hours was not reported as a risk factor for mortality, both compared to early surgery (within 48 hours) and to late surgery (after 72hours). This study showed that age, sex and number of co-morbidities influenced both early and late mortality in patients affected by proximal hip fractures. Early surgery influenced late mortality, with a decreased risk in patients operated on within 48hours. The option of operating within day 3 is not a valid alternative.

Keywords: elderly; femoral fractures; mortality; surgery delay.