Overall and cause-specific excess mortality in HIV-positive persons compared with the general population: Role of HCV coinfection

Abstract

We aimed to estimate overall and cause-specific excess mortality of HIV-positive patients compared with the general population, and to assess the effect of risk factors.We included patients aged >19 years, recruited from January 1, 2004 to May 31, 2014 in Cohort of the Spanish Network on HIV/AIDS Research. We used generalized linear models with Poisson error structure to model excess mortality rates.In 10,340 patients, 368 deaths occurred. Excess mortality was 0.82 deaths per 100 person-years for all-cause mortality, 0.11 for liver, 0.08 for non-AIDS-defining malignancies (NADMs), 0.08 for non-AIDS infections, and 0.02 for cardiovascular-related causes. Lower CD4 count and higher HIV viral load, lower education, being male, and over 50 years were predictors of overall excess mortality. Short-term (first year follow-up) overall excess hazard ratio (eHR) for subjects with AIDS at entry was 3.71 (95% confidence interval [CI] 2.66, 5.19) and 1.37 (95% CI 0.87, 2.15) for hepatitis C virus (HCV)-coinfected; medium/long-term eHR for AIDS at entry was 0.90 (95% CI 0.58, 1.39) and 3.83 (95% CI 2.37, 6.19) for HCV coinfection. Liver excess mortality was associated with low CD4 counts and HCV coinfection. Patients aged ≥50 years and HCV-coinfected showed higher NADM excess mortality, and HCV-coinfected patients showed increased non-AIDS infections excess mortality.Overall, liver, NADM, non-AIDS infections, and cardiovascular excesses of mortality associated with being HIV-positive were found, and HCV coinfection and immunodeficiency played significant roles. Differential short and medium/long-term effects of AIDS at entry and HCV coinfection were found for overall excess mortality.

Figure 1

Adjusted excess hazard ratio (eHR) for the associations between potential risk factors and overall excess mortality rate. eHR and P values derived from a multivariable generalized linear model with Poisson error structure. P value derived from Wald test. LA = Latin America, SSA = sub-Saharan Africa.

Figure 2

Adjusted cause-specific excess hazard ratio (eHR) for the associations between potential risk factors and cause-specific excess mortality rate. eHR derived from a multivariable generalized linear model with Poisson error structure. LA = Latin America, SSA = sub-Saharan Africa.